Quotes from Gerd Gigerenzer

I focus on the most important form of innumeracy in everyday life, statistical innumeracy--that is, the inability to reason about uncertainties and risk.

An intuition is neither caprice nor a sixth sense but a form of unconscious intelligence.

Knowledge is the antidote to fear.

We have to learn to live with uncertainty.

Defensive medicine: A doctor orders tests or treatments that are not clinically indicated and might even harm the patient primarily because of fear of litigation.

Physicians don't do the best for their patients because they: practice defensive medicine (Self-defense), do not understand health statistics (Innumeracy), or pursue profit instead of virtue (Conflicts of interest).

Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler.

Einstein's rule is a general way to realize that less can be more in an uncertain world.

cognitive illusions are difficult to overcome. That is why education of the public is doomed to fail and paternalistic strategies to maneuver people into doing the "right" things are the only viable alternative.

RISK: If risks are known, good decisions require logic and statistical thinking. UNCERTAINTY: If some risks are unknown, good decisions also require intuition and smart rules of thumb.

Intelligent decision making entails knowing what tool to use for what problem.

Many a committee meeting ends with "We need more data." Everybody nods, breathing a sigh of relief, happy that the decision has been deferred. A week or so later, when the data are in, the group is no further ahead. Everyone's time is wasted on another meeting, on waiting for even more data. The culprit is a negative error culture, in which everyone lacks the courage to make a decision for which they may be punished.

Always ask: What is the absolute risk increase?

If we knew everything about the future with certainty, our lives would be drained of emotion. No surprise and pleasure, no joy or thrill—we knew it all along. The first kiss, the first proposal, the birth of a healthy child would be about as exciting as last year's weather report. If our world ever turned certain, life would be mind-numbingly dull. The

There is strong evidence that intuitions are based on simple, smart rules that take into account only some of the available information.

Because these calculations generate precise numbers for an uncertain risk, they produce an illusory certainty.

according to rationality norms requiring only internal coherence, one can be perfectly consistent, and yet wrong about everything

One such emotion that conflicts with dread-risk fear is parental concern. The professor might remind his wife that by making them drive long distances she puts the lives of her children—not just that of her husband—at risk.

Rational argument does not always win over old-brain fear, particularly if one spouse tries to educate the other. Yet there is a simple rule of thumb that could have helped that professor: If reason conflicts with a strong emotion, don't try to argue. Enlist a conflicting and stronger emotion. One

Enlightenment is man's emergence from his self-imposed nonage. Nonage is the inability to use one's own understanding without another's guidance. This nonage is self-imposed if its cause lies not in lack of understanding but in indecision and lack of courage to use one's mind without another's guidance. Dare to know! Freedom

In Hong Kong, some high-rises are missing all floor numbers with 4, such as 4, 14, 24, 34, and all of the 40s. That's why Hong Kong elevators are the fastest in the world: They arrive quickly at floor 50.

Humans appear to have a need for certainty, a motivation to hold on to something rather than to question it. People with a high need for certainty are more prone to stereotypes than others and are less inclined to remember information that contradicts their stereotypes.3

plans." To be sure, illusions have their function. Small children often need security blankets to soothe their fears. Yet for the mature adult, a high need for certainty can be a dangerous thing. It prevents us from learning to face the uncertainty pervading our lives. As hard as we try, we cannot make our lives risk-free the way we make our milk fat-free.

The quest for certainty is the biggest obstacle to becoming risk savvy. While there are things we can know, we must also be able to recognize when we cannot know something.