Quotes from Steven D. Levitt

Mientras discutía acerca de su investigación sobre los nombres en un programa de radio, Roland G. Fryer Jr. aceptó una llamada de una mujer negra que se sentía disgustada por el nombre que acababan de dar a su sobrina recién nacida. Se pronunciaba shuh-Teed, pero en realidad se escribía como «Shithead» [tonta, despreciable].

Come up with a terrible idea? No problem—just don't act on it.

When the eyes were watching, Bateson's colleagues left nearly three times as much money in the honesty box. So the next time you laugh when a bird is frightened off by a silly scarecrow, remember that scarecrows work on human beings too.

More than 70 percent of the men in his generation have sex before they marry, compared with just 33 percent in the earlier generation.

The way economists see it, the chances of an individual's vote influencing an election outcome is vanishingly small, so unless it is fun to vote, it doesn't make much sense to do so.

Overall, a portfolio of the "good to great" companies looks like it would have underperformed the S&P 500.

Any religion, meanwhile, has its heretics, and global warming is no exception.

Here is the broader point: whatever problem you're trying to solve, make sure you're not just attacking the noisy part of the problem that happens to capture your attention. Before spending all your time and resources, it's incredibly important to properly define the problem—or, better yet, redefine the problem.

One teenage boy, Amcher, had been named for the first thing his parents saw upon reaching the hospital: the sign for Albany Medical Center Hospital Emergency Room.

So in the tradition of Poland Spring, Evian, and other hydro-geniuses, we've decided to bottle something that was freely available and charge you money for it.

That may not be a simple conversation. But when you are dealing with root causes, at least you know you are fighting the real problem and not just boxing with shadows.

contar historias que se basan en datos acumulados y no en anécdotas personales, anomalías llamativas, opiniones personales, estallidos emocionales o tendencias morales.

So when it comes to solving problems, channeling your inner child can really pay off. It all starts with thinking small.

los experimentos de laboratorio tienen el poder de transformar a una persona en «un autómata estúpido» que puede manifestar una «entusiasta disposición a ayudar al investigador de todas las maneras posibles, diciéndole precisamente lo que más quiere saber».

Tetlock's words, even when their predictions prove.

One of the best things about having a blog is that you've got a place to run your craziest ideas up the flagpole and see just how quickly they get shot down.

Every big problem has been thought about endlessly by people much smarter than we are. The fact that it remains a problem means it is too damned hard to be cracked in full.

Parece que forma parte de la condición humana creer en nuestra capacidad de predicción… y también olvidar rápidamente lo malas que resultaron ser nuestras predicciones.

it is often possible to elicit the behavior you want through nonfinancial means.

If morality represents how people would like the world to work, then economics shows how it actually does work.

Is it a good idea to pass along a family business to the next generation? (Sure, if your goal is to kill off the business—for the data show it's generally better to bring in an outside manager.

it is even harder to persuade people who do not wish to be persuaded.

But this is not to say that parents don't matter. Plainly they matter a great deal. Here is the conundrum: by the time most people pick up a parenting book, it is far too late. Most of the things that matter were decided long ago—who you are, whom you married, what kind of life you lead. If you are smart, hardworking, well educated, well paid, and married to someone equally fortunate, then your children are more likely to succeed.

MODERATOR: Tonight, our guest: Thomas Sargent, Nobel laureate in economics and one of the most-cited economists in the world. Professor Sargent, can you tell me what CD rates will be in two years? SARGENT: No.