Quotes from Bent Flyvbjerg

ASK "WHY?" Asking why you're doing your project will focus you on what matters, your ultimate purpose, and your result. This goes into the box on the right of your project chart.

BUILD WITH LEGO Big is best built from small. Bake one small cake. Bake another. And another. Then stack them.

What's the worst that can happen during planning? Maybe your whiteboard is accidentally erased. What's the worst that can happen during delivery? Your drill breaks through the ocean floor, flooding the tunnel.

Almost any nightmare you can imagine can happen—and has happened—during delivery. You want to limit your exposure to this. You do it by taking all the time necessary to create a detailed, tested plan. Planning is relatively cheap and safe; delivering is expensive and dangerous. Good planning boosts the odds of a quick, effective delivery, keeping the window on risk small and closing it as soon as possible.

TAKE THE OUTSIDE VIEW

one reason Theranos got into trouble was that it used a Silicon Valley model commonly applied to software, which can afford to have initial glitches and failures, for medical testing, which cannot.

Think of your project as "one of those," gather data, and learn from all the experience those numbers represent by making reference-class forecasts. Use the same focus to spot and mitigate risks. Switching the focus from your project to the class your project belongs to will lead, paradoxically, to a more accurate understanding of your project.

WATCH YOUR DOWNSIDE It's often said that opportunity is as important as risk. That's false. Risk can kill you or your project. No upside can compensate for that. For fat-tailed risk, which is present in most projects, forget about forecasting risk; go directly to mitigation by spotting and eliminating dangers.

SAY NO AND WALK AWAY Staying focused is essential for getting projects done. Saying no is essential for staying focused. At the outset, will the project have the people and funds, including contingencies, needed to succeed? If not, walk away. Does an action contribute to achieving the goal in the box on the right? If not, skip it. Say no to monuments. No to untested technology. No to lawsuits. And so on. This can be difficult, particularly if your organization embraces a bias for action.

MAKE FRIENDS AND KEEP THEM FRIENDLY

We therefore conclude that cost overrun has not decreased over time. Cost overrun today is in the same order of magnitude as it was ten, thirty or seventy years ago. If techniques and skills for estimating costs and avoiding cost overrun in transport infrastructure projects have improved over time, this does not show in the data. No learning seems to take place in this important and highly costly sector of public and private decision making.

If something goes wrong, the project's fate depends on the strength of those relationships. And when something goes wrong, it's too late to start developing and cultivating them. Build your bridges before you need them.

BUILD CLIMATE MITIGATION INTO YOUR PROJECT No task is more urgent today than mitigating the climate crisis—not only for the common good but for your organization, yourself, and your family.

KNOW THAT YOUR BIGGEST RISK IS YOU It's tempting to think that projects fail because the world throws surprises at us: price and scope changes, accidents, weather, new management—the list goes on. But this is shallow thinking.

judgment and improve project planning and leadership. Aristotle said that experience is "the fruit of years" and argued that it is the source of what he called "phronesis"—the "practical wisdom" that allows us to see what is good for people and to make it happen, which Aristotle saw as the highest "intellectual virtue."[1] Modern science suggests that he was quite right.

The cost estimate of the prospectus turned out to be a best possible outcome based on the unlikely assumption that everything would go according to plan with no delays, no changes in performance specifications, no management problems, no problems with contractual arrangements or new technologies or geology, no major conflicts, no political promises not kept, and so on.

Projects are often started by jumping straight to a solution, even a specific technology. That's the wrong place to begin. You want to start by asking questions and considering alternatives. At the outset, always assume that there is more to learn. Start with the most basic question of all: Why?

careful analysis like that done by David's architect can be laborious and take ages, but if it is too narrowly focused, it won't reveal fundamental flaws in the plan or gaps, much less correct them. And by its impressive detail, it may give the false idea that the overall plan is stronger than it is, like a beautiful facade with no structure behind it. Governments and bureaucratic corporations are good at churning out this sort of analysis.

When delivery fails, efforts to figure out why tend to focus exclusively on delivery. That's understandable, but it's a mistake, because the root cause of why delivery fails often lies outside delivery, in forecasting, years before delivery was even begun.

the scientist and philosopher Michael Polanyi showed, much of the most valuable knowledge we can possess and use isn't like that; it is "tacit knowledge." We feel tacit knowledge. And when we try to put it into words, the words never fully capture it. As Polanyi wrote, "We can know more than we can tell.

But when things go wrong and people get desperate, the obvious is often overlooked, and it's assumed that if delivery fails, the problem must lie with delivery, when in fact it lies with forecasting.

The officials told Gehry that they wanted a building that could do for Bilbao and the Basque Country what the Sydney Opera House had done for Sydney and Australia: put them on the map and bring back growth.

As psychologists have shown in countless experiments, final estimates made this way are biased toward the anchor, so a low anchor produces a lower estimate than a high anchor does. That means the quality of the anchor is critical. Use a good anchor, and you greatly improve your chance of making a good forecast; use a bad anchor, get a bad forecast. Unfortunately, it is easy to settle on a bad anchor.

Markets are complex systems. Energy production and distribution are complex systems. Manufacturing and transportation are complex systems. Debt is a complex system. So are viruses. And climate change. And globalization. On and on the list goes. If your project is ambitious and depends on other people and many parts, it is all but certain that your project is embedded in complex systems.