Quotes from Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Your revenue depends on your continuous efforts more than on the quality of your decisions.

He did better emotionally with his own portfolio than with those of clients, since he was not obligated to monitor it continuously.

so users were severely constrained by time.

In the end we are being driven by history, all the while thinking that we are doing the driving.

They are left alone to do as they please, provided of course that their results satisfy the executives.

Como se supone que dijo Stalin (que algo sabía sobre la mortalidad): «Una muerte es una tragedia; un millón de muertes, una estadística». La estadística permanece callada en nuestro interior.

Wealthy' is meaningless and has no robust absolute measure; use instead the subtractive measure 'unwealth,' that is, the difference, at any point in time, between what you have and what you would like to have.

They would prefer a defective forecast to nothing.

The need to focus on the payoff from your actions instead of studying the structure of the world (or understanding the "True" and the "False") has been largely missed in intellectual history.

you have the right to contradict me so long as I have the right to contradict you.

they were of no use to anyone outside IBM.

The turkey problem can be generalized to any situation where the same hand that feeds you can be the one that wrings your neck. Consider

these careers face a continuous supply of these stressors that make them adjust opportunistically.

Categorizing always produces reduction in true complexity.

The payoff, what happens to you (the benefits or harm from it), is always the most important thing, not the event itself.

He can work any hours he likes, travel at a whim, and engage in all manner of personal pursuits.

because they cost more to run than the benefits they bring.

In other words, it will not be Black Swan driven.

Esse é o argumento que David Hume, em sua História da Inglaterra,5 apresenta em favor dos pequenos Estados, já que os grandes cedem à sedução da guerra.

Probability is not a mere computation of odds on the dice or more complicated variants; it is the acceptance of the lack of certainty in our knowledge and the development of methods for dealing with our ignorance. … Mother Nature does not tell you how many holes there are on the roulette table … In this book, considering that alternative outcomes could have taken place, that the world could have been different, is the core of probabilistic thinking.

Some readers may see it as an appendix; others may consider it the heart of the book.

Hume came to warn us against such knowledge, and to stress the need for some rigor in the gathering and interpretation of knowledge

Nykyaika: loimme nuoruuden ilman sankaruutta, iän ilman viisautta ja elämän ilman loistoa.

The question is: what would you like to be, a dog or a wolf?