Quotes from Nassim Nicholas Taleb

There is a difference between beliefs that are decorative and different sorts of beliefs, those that map to action.

The story of the wheel itself is even more humbling than that of the suitcase:

Whenever possible, replace the doctor with human antifragility. But otherwise don't be shy with aggressive treatments.

the second lesson is more aggressive: you can actually take advantage of the problem of prediction and epistemic arrogance!

I engage in a gambling strategy that has 999 chances in 1,000 of making $ 1 (event A) and 1 chance in 1,000 of losing $ 10,000 (event B), as in Table 6.1. My expectation is a loss of close to $ 9 (obtained by multiplying the probabilities by the corresponding outcomes).

minimize time spent reading newspapers

While I accept the notion of epistemic base, what I question is the role it has really played in the history of technology.

But it took the Industrial Revolution for us to discover this earlier discovery.

They don't know what you can do with it, and will live in a state of uncertainty.

Double a man's erudition; you will halve his citations.

If you are a Stone Age historical thinker called on to predict the future in a comprehensive report for your chief tribal planner, you must project the invention of the wheel or you will miss pretty much all of the action. Now, if you can prophesy the invention of the wheel, you already know what a wheel looks like, and thus you already know how to build a wheel, so you are already on your way. The Black Swan needs to be predicted!

My paternal uncle was not too bothered by my political ideas (these

but runs the risk of killing a few, with a net benefit to society.

Beware of precise plans by government. Let government predict: it makes them feel better about themselves and justifies their existence.

and unappreciated upon their discovery, and remained unappreciated well after their initial use.

Anything that hinders one's survival at an individual, collective, tribal, or general level is, to me, irrational.

Remember that food would not have a taste if it weren't for hunger;

This, perhaps, is true self-confidence: the ability to look at the world without the need to find signs that stroke one's ego.fn3

we know a lot more what is wrong than what is right

It netted a 4.5% revenue

Je préférerais être bête et antifragile qu'extrêmement intelligent et fragile, à n'importe quel moment.

Such income provides them some insulation from randomness.

The optimal solution to being independent and upright while remaining a social animal is: to seek first your own self-respect and, secondarily and conditionally, that of others, provided your external image does not conflict with your own self-respect. Most people get it backwards and seek the admiration of the collective and something called "a good reputation" at the expense of self-worth for, alas, the two are in frequent conflict under modernity.

but that is not where the significance of the story lies.