Quotes from Philip Tetlock

We have all been too quick to make up our minds and too slow to change them.

there is no such thing as failure. Failure is just life trying to move us in another direction….Learn from every mistake because every experience, encounter, and particularly your mistakes are there to teach you and force you into being who you are." Everything happens for a reason. Everything has a purpose.

Superforecasting does require minimum levels of intelligence, numeracy, and knowledge of the world, but anyone who reads serious books about psychological research probably has those prerequisites. So

Doubt is not a fearful thing," Feynman observed, "but a thing of very great value.

in most cases statistical algorithms beat subjective judgment, and in the handful of studies where they don't, they usually tie. Given

The point is now indisputable: when you have a well-validated statistical algorithm, use it.

we are serious about measuring and improving, this won't do. Forecasts must have clearly defined terms and timelines. They must use numbers. And one more thing is essential: we must have lots of forecasts.

day-to-day fluctuations in the profits of existing investments, which are obviously of an ephemeral and nonsignificant character, tend to have an altogether excessive, and even an absurd, influence on the market."12

it turns out that forecasting is not a "you have it or you don't" talent. It is a skill that can be cultivated.

Uncertainty is real," Byers writes. "It is the dream of total certainty

Quit pretending you know things you don't and start running experiments.

a distinction that philosophers have proposed between "epistemic" and "aleatory" uncertainty.

No plan of operations extends with certainty beyond the first encounter with the enemy's main strength

the more famous an expert was, the less accurate he was.

Epistemic uncertainty is something you don't know but is, at least in theory, knowable.

Aleatory uncertainty is something you not only don't know; it is unknowable.

I have been struck by how important measurement is to improving the human condition," Bill Gates wrote. "You can achieve incredible progress if you set a clear goal and find a measure that will drive progress toward that goal. … This may seem basic, but it is amazing how often it is not done and how hard it is to get right.

For superforecasters, beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be guarded.

For scientists, not knowing is exciting. It's an opportunity to discover; the more that is unknown, the greater the opportunity.

How you think matters more than what you think

Consensus is not always good; disagreement not always bad. If you do happen to agree, don't take that agreement—in itself—as proof that you are right. Never stop doubting.

Churchill sent Keynes a cable reading, 'Am coming around to your point of view.' His Lordship replied, 'Sorry to hear it. Have started to change my mind.' "7

The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function," F. Scott Fitzgerald

If you have to plan for a future beyond the forecasting horizon, plan for surprise. That means, as Danzig advises, planning for adaptability and resilience.