Quotes from Daniel Kahneman

The observers almost never missed a K that was shown at the beginning or near the end of the Add-1 task but they missed the target almost half the time when mental effort was at its peak

If a satisfactory answer to a hard question is not found quickly, System 1 will find a related question that is easier and will answer it. I

an accurate diagnosis may suggest an intervention to limit the damage that bad judgments and choices often cause.

The widespread misunderstanding of randomness sometimes has significant consequences.

people rely on a limited number of heuristic principles which reduce the complex tasks of assessing probabilities and predicting values to simpler judgmental operations. In general, these heuristics are quite useful, but sometimes they lead to severe and systematic errors.

You can feel Simon's impatience with the mythologizing of expert intuition when he writes: "The situation has provided a cue; this cue has given the expert access to information stored in memory, and the information provides the answer. Intuition is nothing more and nothing less than recognition.

People who buy lottery tickets in vast amounts show themselves willing to pay much more than expected value for very small chances to win a large prize.

Michotte had a different idea: he argued that we see causality, just as directly as we see color.

When the handsome and confident speaker bounds onto the stage, for example, you can anticipate that the audience will judge his comments more favorably than he deserves. The availability of a diagnostic label for this bias—the halo effect—makes it easier to anticipate, recognize, and understand.

In simple words, prospect theory cannot deal with disappointment.

He had noticed that the pupils are sensitive indicators of mental effort—they dilate substantially when people multiply two-digit numbers, and they dilate more if the problems are hard than if they are easy. His

The observers almost never missed a K that was shown at the beginning or near the end of the Add-1 task but they missed the target almost half the time when mental effort was at its peak, although we had pictures of their wide-open eye staring straight at

Irrational is a strong word, which connotes impulsivity, emotionality, and a stubborn resistance to reasonable argument.

The reliance on the heuristic caused predictable biases (systematic errors) in their predictions.

The amount of evidence and its quality do not count for much, because poor evidence can make a very good story. For some of our most important beliefs we have no evidence at all, except that people we love and trust hold these beliefs.

whenever accuracy is the goal, bias and noise play the same role in the calculation of overall error.

Your mind is ready and even eager to identify agents, assign them personality traits and specific intentions, and view their actions as expressing individual propensities.

The observers almost never missed a K that was shown at the beginning or near the end of the Add-1 task but they missed the target almost half the time when mental effort was at its peak, although we had pictures of their wide-open eye staring straight at it.

The executive's decision would today be described as an example of the affect heuristic, where judgments and decisions are guided directly by feelings of liking and disliking, with little deliberation or reasoning.

En la economía de la acción, el esfuerzo es un coste, y la adquisición de habilidad viene determinada por el balance de costes y beneficios.10 La pereza está profundamente arraigada en nuestra naturaleza.

Statistical algorithms greatly outdo humans in noisy environments for two reasons: they are more likely than human judges to detect weakly valid cues and much more likely to maintain a modest level of accuracy by using such cues consistently.

System noise, that is, unwanted variability in judgments that should ideally be identical, can create rampant injustice, high economic costs, and errors of many kinds.

From the perspective of noise reduction, a singular decision is a recurrent decision that happens only once.

regression inevitably occurs when the correlation between two measures is less than perfect