Quotes from Daniel Kahneman

our excessive confidence in what we believe we know, and our apparent inability to acknowledge the full extent of our ignorance and the uncertainty of the world we live in.

Reciprocal priming effects tend to produce a coherent reaction: if you were primed to think of old age, you would tend to act old, and acting old would reinforce the thought of old age.

the long-term success of a relationship depends far more on avoiding the negative than on seeking the positive. Gottman estimated that a stable relationship requires that good interactions outnumber bad interactions by at least 5 to 1. Other asymmetries in the social domain are even more striking. We all know that a friendship that may take years to develop can be ruined by a single action.

Meehl and other proponents of algorithms have argued strongly that it is unethical to rely on intuitive judgments for important decisions if an algorithm is available that will make fewer mistakes.

Other classic studies showed that electrical stimulation of specific areas in the rat brain (and of corresponding areas in the human brain) produce a sensation of intense pleasure, so intense in some cases that rats who can stimulate their brain by pressing a lever will die of starvation without taking a break to feed themselves

Insufficient adjustment is also a source of tension between exasperated parents and teenagers who enjoy loud music in their room. Le Boeuf and Shafir note that a "well-intentioned child who turns down exceptionally loud music to meet a parent's demand that it be played at a 'reasonable' volume may fail to adjust sufficiently from a high anchor, and may feel that genuine attempts at compromise are being overlooked.

One of the tasks of System 2 is to overcome the impulses of System 1. In other words, System 2 is in charge of self-control.

judgments of similarity and probability are not constrained by the same logical rules. It is entirely acceptable for judgments of similarity to be unaffected by base rates and also by the possibility that the description was inaccurate, but anyone who ignores base rates and the quality of evidence in probability assessments will certainly make mistakes.

The exaggerated faith in small samples is only one example of a more general illusion—we pay more attention to the content of messages than to information about their reliability, and as a result end up with a view of the world around us that is simpler and more coherent than the data justify. Jumping

demonstrated experimentally, but few can actually be measured.

It is no accident that authoritarian regimes exert substantial pressure on independent media.

Observers are less cognitively busy and more open to information than actors.

System 1 does not keep track of alternatives that it rejects, or even of the fact that there were alternatives.

You seem to be devoting your entire vacation to the construction of memories. Perhaps you should put away the camera and enjoy the moment, even if it is not very memorable?

you should know that correcting your intuitions may complicate your life.

System 1 provides the impressions that often turn into your beliefs, and is the source of the impulses that often become your choices and your actions.

La adaptación a una nueva situación, sea buena o mala, consiste en gran parte en pensar cada vez menos en ella. En

The issue becomes politically important because it is on everyone's mind, and the response of the political system is guided by the intensity of public sentiment. The availability cascade has now reset priorities. Other risks, and other ways that resources could be applied for the public good, all have faded into the background.

the strong conclusion that simple mechanical rules were generally superior to human judgment

Although hindsight and the outcome bias generally foster risk aversion, they also bring undeserved rewards to irresponsible risk seekers, such as a general or an entrepreneur who took a crazy gamble and won.

She says experience has taught her that criticism is more effective than praise. What she doesn't understand is that it's all due to regression to the mean.

So far in this chapter, we have focused on predictive judgment tasks, and most of the judgments we will discuss are of that type.

sympathy we would feel for the patient would not be under our control; it would arise from System 1.

A few lucky gambles can crown a reckless leader with a halo of prescience and boldness.