Quotes from Daniel Kahneman

essence of intuitive heuristics: when faced with a difficult question, we often answer an easier one instead, usually without noticing the substitution.

you will often find that knowing little makes it easier to fit everything you know into a coherent pattern.

Our answer was that when called upon to judge probability, people actually judge something else and believe they have judged probability.

high subjective confidence is not to be trusted as an indicator of accuracy (low confidence could be more informative).

sense. A good mood is a signal that things are generally going well, the environment is safe, and it is all right to let one's guard down. A bad mood indicates that things are not going very well, there may be a threat, and vigilance is required. Cognitive

bias is a compelling figure, while noise is the background to which we pay no attention. That is how we remain largely unaware of a large flaw in our judgment.

Amos and I stumbled on the central flaw in Bernoulli's theory by a lucky combination of skill and ignorance.

His System 1 constructed a story, and his System 2 believed it. It happens to all of us.

If you have had to force yourself to do something, you are less willing or less able to exert self-control when the next challenge comes around

For example, people: believe that they use their bicycles less often after recalling many rather than few instances are less confident in a choice when they are asked to produce more arguments to support it

the essence of intuitive heuristics: when faced with a difficult question, we often answer an easier one instead, usually without noticing the substitution.

Of course, not all slow thinking requires that form of intense concentration and effortful computation—I did the best thinking of my life on leisurely walks with Amos.

Variability in judgments is also expected and welcome in a competitive situation in which the best judgments will be rewarded.

The implication is clear: as the psychologist Jonathan Haidt said in another context, "The emotional tail wags the rational dog." The affect heuristic simplifies our lives by creating a world that is much tidier than reality.

A veces haremos más que los demás, pero es útil saber que posiblemente tengamos esa sensación cuando cada miembro del equipo también la tiene.

psychologist Eckhard Hess described the pupil of the eye as a window to the soul. I reread it recently and again found it inspiring.

flawed stories of the past shape our views of the world and our expectations for the future. Narrative fallacies arise inevitably from our continuous attempt to make sense of the world.

More generally, the financial benefits of self-employment are mediocre: given the same qualifications, people achieve higher average returns by selling their skills to employers than by setting out on their own. The evidence suggests that optimism is widespread, stubborn, and costly.

The same is true when multiple teams of researchers attack a scientific problem, such as the development of a vaccine: we very much want them to look at it from different angles.

even sophisticated researchers have poor intuitions and a wobbly understanding of sampling effects.

Those who avoid the sin of intellectual sloth could be called "engaged." They are more alert, more intellectually active, less willing to be satisfied with superficially attractive answers, more skeptical about their intuitions. The psychologist Keith Stanovich would call them more rational.

The nervous system consumes more glucose than most other parts of the body, and effortful mental activity appears to be especially expensive in the currency of glucose. When you are actively involved in difficult cognitive reasoning or engaged in a task that requires self-control, your blood glucose level drops. The effect is analogous to a runner who draws down glucose stored in her muscles during a sprint. The

Even in the absence of time pressure, maintaining a coherent train of thought requires discipline.

Regression to the mean was discovered and named late in the nineteenth century by Sir Francis Galton, a half cousin of Charles Darwin and a renowned polymath