Quotes from Reid Hastie

Aristotle urged people to seek "the golden mean" between extremes, "moderation in all things" (which we interpret as including moderation in the pursuit of moderation). But why should this golden mean in general be desirable? Clyde Coombs and George Avrunin (1977) have enunciated a very simple principle that implies moderation: "Good things satiate and bad things escalate.

Decision making is a skill.

Cicero believed "luck" determined the success of gambling with essentially random devices. He also apparently understood that there was a relationship between the luck (odds) on a particular throw or set of throws and long-term frequencies. But Cicero was later executed, illustrating that rationality does not guarantee success; it only increases its likelihood. In fact, as pointed out earlier, opting for rationality when others do not can lead to social ostracism.

We take the position that research - not anecdotes, not "plausible beliefs", not common sense, and not our everyday experience - should be the basis for understanding and evaluating our decision-making achievements and defeats.