Quotes About Outcome

If an event that was assigned a probability of 90% fails to happen, the judgment of probability was not necessarily a bad one. After all, outcomes that are just 10% likely to happen end up happening 10% of the time. The Gambardi exercise is an example of a nonverifiable predictive judgment, for two separate reasons: Gambardi is fictitious and the answer is probabilistic.

you win a few, you lose a few.

The essential feature of this internal signal is that the sense of coherence is part of the experience of judgment. It is not contingent on a real outcome. As a result, the internal signal is just as available for nonverifiable judgments as it is for real, verifiable ones. This explains why making a judgment about a fictitious character like Gambardi feels very much the same as does making a judgment about the real world.

Although hindsight and the outcome bias generally foster risk aversion, they also bring undeserved rewards to irresponsible risk seekers, such as a general or an entrepreneur who took a crazy gamble and won.

The essential keys to disciplined Bayesian reasoning can be simply summarized: Anchor your judgment of the probability of an outcome on a plausible base rate. Question the diagnosticity of your evidence.

That's the thing about human life--there is no control group, no way to ever know how any of us would have turned out if any variables had been changed.

Oscar Wilde: "In this world there are only two tragedies. One is not getting what one wants, and the other is getting it. The last is much the

Success is nothing more than a few simple disciplines, practiced every day; while failure is simply a few errors in judgment, repeated every day. It is the accumulative weight of our disciplines and our judgments that leads us either to fortune or failure. — Jim Rohn

Elections have consequences. – Gabriel Allon

When one is making an omelet it is necessary to break eggs. - Saladin

saber cómo acaba la vida solo conseguiría estropear la historia.

A strong conviction that something must be done is the parent of many bad measures.

Things work out the way they're meant to

Things work out the way they're meant to

You can't play the role of a victim all your life without becoming one in the end.

How results that are not indicative of anything can be produced by pure chance—given a small enough number of cases—is something you can test for yourself at small cost. Just start tossing a penny. How often will it come up heads? Half the time of course. Everyone knows that. Well, let's check that and see…. I have just tried ten tosses and got heads eight times, which proves that pennies come up heads eighty percent of the time.

This is because, second, sometimes the winners won for reasons other than the mere

What's first-best time to negotiate?" he asked. "When you're certain to lose. Then you may salvage something, right?

Se hará con ustedes conforme a su fe. Y

After the Echo

I like the adventures because you know that when they say, "I've got a plan," and then they tell you, you know it's not going to work. And when they say, "I've got a plan," and they don't tell you, you know it is going to work, and it's all very exciting. I thought real life might be like that for a while, so I didn't tell anybody what I wanted to happen, but it didn't make any difference. I knew I was kiddin' meself.

The haves and have-nots can often be traced back to the dids and did-nots. D. O. FLYNN

Over the long term you get what you deserve, and none of us like it when what we deserve is pain.

You don't actually do a project; you can only do action steps related to it. When enough of the right action steps have been taken, some situation will have been created that matches your initial picture of the outcome closely enough that you can call it "done.