Quotes About Prediction

In essence, they predict that science, not religion, will guarantee us an afterlife.

John-Dylan Haynes22 and his colleagues expanded Libet's experiments in 2008 to show that the outcomes of an inclination can be encoded in brain activity up to ten seconds before it enters awareness! The brain has acted before its person is conscious of it. Not only that, from looking at the scan, they can make a prediction about what the person is going to do. The implications of this are rather staggering.

It's a big mistake to tell someone what you are going to do to them … they might decide to do it to you first.

Computer scientists calculate that there have been thirty-two doublings since World War II, and that as early as 2030 we may encounter the singularity—the point at which total computational power will rise to levels that are so far beyond anything we can imagine that they will appear nearly infinite and thus, relatively speaking, be indistinguishable from omniscience.

A good hockey player plays where the puck is. A great hockey player plays where the puck is going to be. —ATTRIBUTED TO WAYNE GRETZKY

That's because I believe in what I call consequential epidemiology. That is, by attempting to change what could happen if we don't act, we can positively alter the course of history, rather than merely record and explain it retrospectively.

The 50–50–90 rule: Anytime you have a 50–50 chance of getting something right, there's a 90% probability you'll get it wrong. Andy Rooney

China is where Nazi Germany was in 1929 to 1930. The Chinese, like the Germans, are the most rational people in the world, until they're not. And they're gonna flip like Germany in the thirties. You're going to have a hypernationalist state, and once that happens you can't put the genie back in the bottle.

I do know Suzanne. She's a magazine editor who has recently acquired the digital faith. While sitting with her in the Harvard Club one day in the late 1980s, I told her that personal computers would connect us all and replace media as we know it and that we would all be in the computer business before we turned forty. I was teasing, of course. [Burn Rate]

Pelosi, Bannon felt, saw the greater truth: the Trump administration would undo itself.

but I reckon if we could see into the forthcoming, we'd all be rich, and scared shitless.

Romano Pontífice, guárdate de acercarte A la ciudad regada por dos ríos: Tu sangre vendrá allí cerca a esputar, Cuando florezca la rosa, tú y los tuyos.

I am neither a sociologist nor a politician. All I can do is imagine for myself what the future will be like.

I'm not making any bets on the future.

To understand the difficulty of predicting the next 100 years, we have to appreciate the difficulty that the people of 1900 had in predicting the world of 2000.

intelligence seems to be correlated with the complexity with which we can simulate future events

What is happening now is not a surprise. It was predicted. If anything, it is happening faster than predicted, said Mick Mulroy, the Pentagon's former top Middle East policy official and an ABC News analyst. We are not seeing the worst of it. The Taliban is not only taking territory, they are killing people with the weapons we provided to Afghan security forces, said Mulroy, a former CIA officer and Marine infantryman who served in Afghanistan.

Dreams sometimes foretell the future.

I predicted that he would have been sodomised as a boy when he was the same age as the victims. Serial killers do what was done to them either directly or in a symbolic manner.

The cone of uncertainty shows that during the feasibility phase of a project a schedule estimate is typically as far off as 60% to 160%. That is, a project expected to take 20 weeks could take anywhere from 12 to 32 weeks. After the requirements are written, the estimate might still be off +/- 15% in either direction. So an estimate of 20 weeks means work that takes 17 to 23 weeks. Figure 1.1. The cone of uncertainty narrows as the project progresses.

One thing to remember about this prediction: "President Trump" was the punchline to the setup, "What's the dumbest thing we could imagine America doing?" When the news of the world becomes jokes on The Simpsons, that's satire. But when jokes on The Simpsons become the news of the world—well, that's just fucked up.

Whether it be placing advertisements, predicting customer behavior, anticipating equipment failure or even pricing products and services, the most useful people in your strategy team in the future might not be the MBA graduates, but those with the degrees in pure mathematics.

There is not a thing in the world that won't become true one day, just as a stopped clock always has a moment when it is accurate.

The only relevant test of the validity of a hypothesis is comparison of prediction with experience.