Quotes About Prediction

Laws of physics aside, there are no universal constants, so separating the predictable from the unpredictable is difficult work. There's no way around it.

what makes these superforecasters so good. It's not really who they are. It is what they do. Foresight isn't a mysterious gift bestowed at birth. It is the product of particular ways of thinking, of gathering information, of updating beliefs. These habits of thought can be learned and cultivated

There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.

two hundred studies—has shown that in most cases statistical algorithms beat subjective judgment, and in the handful of studies where they don't, they usually tie. Given that algorithms are quick and cheap, unlike subjective judgment, a tie supports using the algorithm. The point is now indisputable: when you have a well-validated statistical algorithm, use it

WE ARE ALL forecasters. When we think about changing jobs, getting married, buying a home, making an investment, launching a product, or retiring, we decide based on how we expect the future will unfold. These expectations are forecasts. Often we do our own forecasting.

forecast Steve Ballmer made in 2007, when he was CEO of Microsoft: "There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.

Superforecasting does require minimum levels of intelligence, numeracy, and knowledge of the world, but anyone who reads serious books about psychological research probably has those prerequisites. So

in most cases statistical algorithms beat subjective judgment, and in the handful of studies where they don't, they usually tie. Given

The point is now indisputable: when you have a well-validated statistical algorithm, use it.

we are serious about measuring and improving, this won't do. Forecasts must have clearly defined terms and timelines. They must use numbers. And one more thing is essential: we must have lots of forecasts.

it turns out that forecasting is not a "you have it or you don't" talent. It is a skill that can be cultivated.

Uncertainty is real," Byers writes. "It is the dream of total certainty

We are both disturbed and fascinated by visions of bleak futures, predictions of what might come if we as a society aren't careful.

Over and over, since I was very young, I see things that are about to happen. You can call it heightened intuition; you can call it visions... I see it as a gift. It's my role to give people a heightened awareness, to show that basically we can change the world.

When people ask how I came up with the concept for my second novel, 'The Immortalists' - four siblings visit a fortune teller who is rumored to be able to tell anyone the date that they will die - I always wish I had a better answer.

I knew as far back as 2001 that I would write a book called 'A Visit From the Goon Squad,' though I had no idea what kind of book it would be.

I shall omit former particulars, and begin with informing the Reader, that, in 1792, I was strangely visited, by day and night, concerning what was coming upon the whole earth.

Look, on the first day of 'The Jump' we shared a ski lift together. We got to the top and Vogue skied off and I said, jokingly at the time: 'I'm going to marry that girl.' Turns out, I am.

When I was in junior high school, the teachers voted me the student most likely to end up in the electric chair.

I was voted Most Likely to Make a Teacher Retire.

I was voted by my high school senior class as most likely to recede.

One lesson is that if you want to predict voter turnout, you should ask whether at least one candidate is attracting high levels of enthusiasm - not whether the stakes are high, or even perceived to be high. That fits the historical pattern.

I don't think I'm the only person who sees a cataclysm coming, but I think I'm the only person saying it, and I think that scares people.

Sometimes if you tell me what a story is about in just a few sentences, I can tell you if it's going to be a success.