Quotes About Forecast

I used to work a lot on food issues and every time somebody predicted that production would be inadequate they got egg on their face a year or two later.

Never ask anyone for their opinion, forecast, or recommendation. Just ask them what they have—or don't have—in their portfolio.

If you ever do have to heed a forecast, keep in mind that its accuracy degrades rapidly as you extend it through time.

second fallacy lies in failing to take into account forecast degradation as the projected period lengthens. We

We produce thirty-year projections of social security deficits and oil prices without realizing that we cannot even predict these for next summer—our cumulative prediction errors for political and economic events are so monstrous that every time I look at the empirical record I have to pinch myself to verify that I am not dreaming. What is surprising is not the magnitude of our forecast errors, but our absence of awareness of it.

there is no other way to produce a forecast without being a turkey somewhere, particularly in the complex environment in which we live today.

in the presence of nonlinearities, the longer the forecast the worse its accuracy.

Black Swan is a sucker's problem. In other words, it occurs relative to your expectation

law of iterated expectations, which I outline here in its strong form: if I expect to expect something at some date in the future, then I already expect that something at present.

What is surprising is not the magnitude of our forecast errors, but our absence of awareness of it. This

They refuse the notion of design by a creator who knows everything, while, at the same time, want to impose human design as if they knew all the consequences. In general, the more people worship the sacrosanct state (or, equivalently, large corporations), the more they hate skin in the game. The more they believe in their ability to forecast, the more they hate skin in the game. The more they wear suits and ties, the more they hate skin in the game.

is much easier to understand if something is harmed by volatility—hence fragile—than try to forecast harmful events, such as these oversized Black Swans. But only practitioners (or people who do things) tend to spontaneously get the point.

What is surprising is not the magnitude of our forecast errors, but our absence of awareness of it.

an even smaller handful managed to foresee the full extent of the damage.

Now, when you read material by finance professors, finance gurus, or your local bank making investment recommendations based on the long-term returns of the market, beware. Even if their forecasts were true (they aren't), no individual can get the same returns as the market unless he has infinite pockets and no uncle points.

They would prefer a defective forecast to nothing.

Now, what if you were going to Chicago, where you are told that the weather, while being 60 degrees, will nevertheless vary by about 30 degrees? You would have to pack winter and summer clothes.

You can project a continuation into the future.

Ooh, I like this one! Connor says. 'Diminished prospects for future.' Sounds like a stock report!

I don't think we're going to see the price of oil going down in the near future, that's the reality.

Get five or six," Bast said. "It's getting cold at night. Winter's coming." The innkeeper smiled. "I'm sure Martin will be flattered.

If February give much snow A fine Summer it doth foreshow.

There is no data on the future.

The outlook for the economy, as always, is highly uncertain.