Quotes About Long-term

Here is part of the tradeoff with diversification. You must be diversified enough to survive bad times or bad luck so that skill and good process can have the chance to pay off over the long term.

Those who were unlucky in life in spite of their skills would eventually rise. The lucky fool might have benefited from some luck in life; over the longer run he would slowly converge to the state of a less-lucky idiot. Each one would revert to his long-term properties.

Many people labor in life under the impression that they are doing something right, yet they may not show solid results for a long time. They need a capacity for continuously adjourned gratification to survive a steady diet of peer cruelty without becoming demoralized.

longer-term predictions are more reliable than short-term ones, given that one can be quite certain that what is Black Swan–prone will be eventually swallowed by history since time augments the probability of such an event.

In fact for most people except those that are very ill, the risks outweigh the benefits. Except that the long-term medical risks are hidden; they will play out in the long run, whereas the legal risk is immediate. This is no different from the Bob Rubin risk-transfer trade, of delaying risks and making them look invisible.

My declared approach was to try to make money infrequently.

the long-term harm is largely unaccounted for.

Consider the situation where the dentist examines his portfolio only upon receiving the monthly account from the brokerage house. As 67% of his months will be positive, he incurs only four pangs of pain per annum and eight uplifting experiences. This is the same dentist following the same strategy. Now consider the dentist looking at his performance only every year. Over the next 20 years that he is expected to live, he will experience 19 pleasant surprises for every unpleasant one!

in the long term, social and economic evolution nastily takes place by surprises, discontinuities, and jumps.

many people become long-term investors after they lose money, postponing

many people become long-term investors after they lose money, postponing their decision to sell as part of their denial.

Now, when you read material by finance professors, finance gurus, or your local bank making investment recommendations based on the long-term returns of the market, beware. Even if their forecasts were true (they aren't), no individual can get the same returns as the market unless he has infinite pockets and no uncle points.

Why anything with optionality has a long-term advantage

He could sustain the pain if he saw only weekly performance numbers, instead of updates every minute.

The basic thing about the Amazon is that these people had a long-term period to learn about and experience and benefit from their knowledge of the environment," Meggers said. "Any group that over-exploited their environment was going to be dead. The ones that survived, the knowledge got built into their ideology and behavior with taboos and other kinds of things.

Evolution has provided the human brain with marvelous tools for detecting and resolving fast-moving, clearly visible, small-scale, near-future risks. By the same token, the brain is easily overwhelmed by slow, abstract, large, long-term problems.

Regression to the mean, the tendency for behavior to move toward "normal" or average, is a persistently powerful phenomenon in physics and sociology and investing.) Yes, several funds beat the market in any particular year and some in any decade, but scrutiny of the long-term records reveals that very few funds beat the market averages over the long haul—and nobody has yet figured out how to tell in advance which funds will do it. The

Since most investment managers will not beat the market, investors should at least consider investing in "index funds" that replicate the market and so never get beaten by the market. Indexing may not be fun or exciting, but it works. The data from the performance measurement firms show that index funds have outperformed most investment managers over long periods of time. For

But Luce takes the attitude, when you start fretting the day-by- day you lose track of the long view. And the long view is, they need to learn to speak for themselves and do the best they can. For now, if they bag their own lunch and it's pickles and prunes and they say the words, all you do is put both thumbs up and say, Good job.

You have to get your mind right, and always look way down the road, not at your feet.

Technology displaces workers in the short run but does not lead to mass unemployment in the long run.

Probability tells us that any outlier—an observation that is particularly far from the mean in one direction or the other—is likely to be followed by outcomes that are more consistent with the long-term average.

I have said many times that it's a mistake to bet against the long-term health of the U.S. equity markets because it's a mistake to bet against the long-term health of the U.S. economy.

I couldn't, and I wouldn't have the long-term friendships and continued loyalty from so many reputable people if I'd mistreated my actors of any age, especially minors.