Quotes About Author

they would not buy my ideas on robust risk management because "everyone uses these textbooks.

I prefer to use stories and vignettes to illustrate our gullibility about stories and our preference for the dangerous compression of narratives.*

The first of the problems of human nature that we examine in this section, the one just illustrated above, is what I call the narrative fallacy.

aside from deriving conclusions from static measures of inequality—the methods he used were flawed:

Such statements, that other traders had also gotten into trouble, are self-incriminating.

The problem is that they did not want these tables to exhibit any form of regularity. Yet real randomness does not look random!

my wish is for people in general to remain fools of randomness (so I can trade against them), yet for there to remain a minority intelligent enough to value my methods and hire my services.

but runs the risk of killing a few, with a net benefit to society.

the "planning fallacy," in which they try to explain the fact that projects take longer, rarely less time, using psychological factors.

In other words, it was a much more linear economy—less complex—than today. And we have more nonlinearities—asymmetries, convexities—in today's world.

The mechanism is a probabilistic method called conditional information: Unless the source of the statement has extremely high qualifications, the statement will be more revealing of the author than the information intended by him.

you never cure structural defects; the system corrects itself by collapsing.*2

who benefited from a market cycle.

they are explicitly designed to benefit from market volatility.

this was his most significant insight, but it remains his least known.

it. It was a physical sensation, perhaps a mixture of joy, pride, and terror.

their role being confined to analysis, not decision making.

absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, a simple point that has the following implications: for the antifragile, good news tends to be absent from past data, and for

No author should be considered as having failed until he starts teaching others about writing.

he had already been financially independent

I would be now brainwashed into thinking that uncertainty was something to be found in a casino

His argument was criticized for being rather incomplete.

but because most unseasoned ideas are fragile.

the larger and more complex the education sector, the less obvious any links to productivity become.