Quotes About Judgment

Hire the successful trader, conditional on a solid track record, whose details you can understand the least.

Using, as an excuse, others' failure of common sense is in itself a failure of common sense.

The best test of whether someone is extremely stupid (or extremely wise) is whether financial and political news makes sense to him.

You may prefer apples to oranges, oranges to pears, but pears to apples—it depends on how the choices are presented to you. The

Compromising is condoning. The only modern dictum I follow is one by George Santayana: A man is morally free when Ã¢â'¬Â¦ he judges the world, and judges other men, with uncompromising sincerity. This is not just an aim but an obligation.

Only he who is free with his time is free with his opinion.

My biggest problem with the educational system lies precisely in that it forces students to squeeze explanations out of subject matters and shames them for withholding judgment, for uttering the "I don't know." Why

The divergence is evident in that journos worry considerably more about the opinion of other journalists than the judgment of their readers. Compare this to a healthy system, say, that of restaurants. As we saw in Chapter 8, restaurant owners worry about the opinion of their customers, not those of other restaurant owners, which keeps them in check and prevents the business from straying collectively away from its interests.

We react to a piece of information not on its logical merit, but on the basis of which framework surrounds it, and how it registers with our social-emotional system. Logical

Fathers shall not be put to death because of their children, nor shall children be put to death because of their fathers. Each one shall be put to death for his own sin.

A man is morally free when … he judges the world, and judges other men, with uncompromising sincerity.

So, a heuristic: if someone has a long bio, I skip him

In a now famous experiment they found that the majority of people, whether predictors or nonpredictors, will judge a deadly flood (causing thousands of deaths) caused by a California earthquake to be more likely than a fatal flood (causing thousands of deaths) occurring somewhere in North America (which happens to include California).

law: innocent until proven guilty as opposed to guilty until proven innocent

you are rewarded for perception, not results.

And someone who has made plenty of errors—though never the same error more than once—is more reliable than someone who has never made any.

blinded by his past results.

people's understanding of probability does not translate into their behavior).

Let us remember that economists are evaluated on how intelligent they sound, not on a scientific measure of their knowledge of reality.

that an evaluation causes you to be judged not by the end results, but by some intermediary metric that invites you to look sophisticated, brings some distortions.

All you need is the wisdom to not do unintelligent things to hurt yourself (some acts of omission) and recognize favorable outcomes when they occur.

The world is split between those who don't know how to start making money and those who don't know when to stop.

Option = asymmetry + rationality

in fact, they are so blind to the odds that they treat odds of one in a thousand and one in a million almost in the same way.