Quotes About Judgment

anyone who ignores base rates and the quality of evidence in probability assessments will certainly make mistakes.

Unfortunately, she tends to say the first thing that comes into her mind. She probably also has trouble delaying gratification. Weak System 2.

It was beyond imagining that bad font influences judgments of truth and improves cognitive performance, or that an emotional response to the cognitive ease of a triad of words mediates impressions of coherence.

many people are overconfident, prone to place too much faith in their intuitions.

The essential keys to disciplined Bayesian reasoning can be simply summarized: Anchor your judgment of the probability of an outcome on a plausible base rate. Question the diagnosticity of your evidence.

Level noise is variability in the average level of judgments by different judges. Pattern noise is variability in judges' responses to particular cases.

Wherever there is judgment, there is noise—and more of it than we think.

Klein and I eventually agreed on an important principle: the confidence that people have in their intuitions is not a reliable guide to their validity.

The number of studies reporting comparisons of clinical and statistical predictions has increased to roughly two hundred, but the score in the contest between algorithms and humans has not changed. About 60% of the studies have shown significantly better accuracy for the algorithms. The other comparisons scored a draw in accuracy, but a tie is tantamount to a win for the statistical rules, which are normally much less expensive to use than expert judgment.

Daniel Kahneman

good judgments depend on what you know, how well you think, and how you think.

The interaction of the two systems is a recurrent theme of the book, and a brief synopsis of the plot is in order.

To be read in context!!!) People who are "cognitively busy" are also more likely to make selfish choices, use sexist language, and make superficial judgments in social situations. Memorizing and repeating digits loosens the hold of System 2 on behavior, but if course cognitive load is not the only cause of weakened self-control.

Pensò al Giudizio universale. Non credeva che avrebbero davvero messo in piedi un simile evento. Gli imputati avevano argomenti per difendersi, alcuni dibattimenti non sarebbero stati graditi a Dio. Insetti, sporcizia, dolore. L'inadeguatezza di tutto. Perfino con lo spazio e il tempo non aveva fatto un lavoro per bene. Se lo si fosse citato in giudizio, pensava proprio che avrebbe avuto un paio di cosette da dirgli.

Who's to say that my light is better than your darkness? Who's to say death is better than your darkness? Who am I to say?

If a person did not have free will, how could he be held accountable for the bad things he did?

Most people look to music to validate their tastes, rather than simply react to what they hear.

A peaceful mind realizes that it has the ability to grasp everything instantaneously. It no longer has to "stockpile" the materials of reality in order to deal with them later. It sees things directly, without projection and without judgment, in all their evidence and obviousness, in their naked reality.

3. El derecho a no terminar un libro ¿El libro se nos cae de las manos? Que se caiga. La gran novela que se nos recite no es necesariamente más difícil que otra. No hay química. Pero ¿Cómo es posible que no le guste Stendhal? Es posible.

Non vi è peggior crimine del volersi sostituire alla coscienza altrui.

Appearances can be misleading. You just never know what's inside someone until he's tested.

Success is nothing more than a few simple disciplines, practiced every day; while failure is simply a few errors in judgment, repeated every day. It is the accumulative weight of our disciplines and our judgments that leads us either to fortune or failure. — Jim Rohn

who famously dismissed the clientele of the Hôtel Grand Courchevel as "the elderly and their parents.

I decide a book is bad if I get angrier and angrier as I read it.