Quotes About Unexpected

The larger the role of the Black Swan, the harder it will be for us to predict.

Had it been expected, it would not have caused the damage it did

I found luck in the most unexpected of places. It is as if there were two planets: the one in which we actually live and the one, considerably more deterministic, on which people are convinced we live.

Bent Flyvbjerg (do capítulo 18) mostrou, em seu Black Swan Management [Gerenciamento do Cisne Negro], a

Why was the change so abrupt?

many historians looking at the record have been taken aback by the swiftness of the change.

The Platonic fold is the explosive boundary where the Platonic mind-set enters in contact with messy reality, where the gap between what you know and what you think you know becomes dangerously wide. It is here that the Black Swan is produced.

because they underestimate the impact of the highly improbable

It qualified as a Black Swan, but I did not know the expression then.

those hidden asymmetries that do not immediately come to mind

she may have been happier before the Black Swan of her success than after.

do not try to predict precise Black Swans—it tends to make you more vulnerable to the ones you did not predict.

Los Cisnes Negros que imaginamos, de los que hablamos y nos preocupamos no se parecen a los que previsiblemente son Cisnes Negros. Como veremos a continuación, nos preocupamos de los sucesos «improbables» equivocados.

the Black Swan is not just about the occurrence of some event but also about its depth and consequences.)

I had been told in high school that the planets are in something called equilibrium, so we did not have to worry about the stars hitting us unexpectedly. To me, that eerily resembled the stories we were also told about the "unique historical stability" of Lebanon.

In other words, it will not be Black Swan driven.

My idea is that not only are some scientific results useless in real life, because they underestimate the impact of the highly improbable (or lead us to ignore it), but that many of them may be actually creating Black Swans.

Black Swan Is Relative to Knowledge

He knows you?" said Mae, her frown deepening. "But you didn't call out to him, child. Why not?" "I was too scared to do anything ," said Winnie honestly. Tuck shook his head. "I never thought we'd come to the place where we'd be scaring children," he said.

Genuine self-esteem is what we feel about ourselves when everything is not all right. This means, when we are challenged by the unexpected, when others disagree with us, when we are flung back on our own resources, when the cocoon of the group can no longer insulate us from the tasks and risks of life, when we must think, choose, decide, and act and no one is guiding us or applauding us. At such moments our deepest premises reveal themselves.

You're going to pee in someone's suitcase? Do you have any other ideas? And suddenly Miracolina begins to snicker, then giggle, then giggle, then cackle uncontrollably. He's going to pee in someone's suitcase! Quiet! Do you want people on the bus to hear you? But Miracolina is beyond help. She's entered into a fullfledged laughter fit-the kind that leaves your stomach hurting. They're gonna open their suitcase, she blurts between bursts of glee, And their clothes'll be full of pee!

It's amazing how people can surprise you.

Even though the whole world had slid of its axis. Breakfast was breakfast. How dare it be?

Revelations are never convenient, and always annoying.