Quotes About Consequence

The payoff of a human venture is, in general, inversely proportional to what it is expected to be.

The degeneration of philosophical schools in its turn is the consequence of the mistaken belief that one can philosophize without having been compelled to philosophize by problems outside philosophy. …

My point taken further is that True and False (hence what we call "belief") play a poor, secondary role in human decisions; it is the payoff from the True and the False that dominates—and it is almost always asymmetric, with one consequence much bigger than the other, i.e., harboring positive and negative asymmetries (fragile or antifragile). Let

Alas, investors and businesses are not paid in probabilities; they are paid in dollars. Accordingly, it is not how likely an event is to happen that matters, it is how much is made when it happens that should be the consideration. How frequent the profit is irrelevant; it is the magnitude of the outcomes that counts.

provérbio de Sêneca no Tratado sobre a clemência a respeito do efeito reverso das punições. Ele escreveu: "O castigo repetido, enquanto esmaga o ódio de alguns, incita o ódio de todos […] assim como as árvores que foram podadas fazem brotar novamente incontáveis galhos". Pois

the decision maker focuses on the payoff, the consequence of the actions (hence includes asymmetries and nonlinear effects).

Sadly, it may be even worse for you to make $10 million, then lose back nine, than to making nothing at all! True, you may end up with a million (as compared to nothing), but it may be better had you got zilch. (This assumes, of course, that you care about financial rewards.)

Cancer from smoking seems more likely than cancer without a cause attached to it

The larger the event, the larger the difference.

He paid no price for the mistake.

seem to ignore the bad economic aspect of the transaction.

Not understanding that doing nothing can be much more preferable to doing something potentially harmful.

It's much easier to sell "Look what I did for you" than "Look what I avoided for you.

So what counts is the payoff from success.

There are some risks we just cannot afford to take. And there are other risks (of the type academics shun) that we cannot afford to not take.

Risk and ruin are different tings.

People are scared of the alternative.

Imagine what might have happened had you not missed your train

How frequent the profit is irrelevant; it is the magnitude of the outcome that counts.

an even smaller handful managed to foresee the full extent of the damage.

they think in terms of actions, never interactions.

By the mechanism of retrospective determinism we will find the "cause"—actually

should avoid engaging in an action with a big downside if one has no idea of the outcomes.

In fact for most people except those that are very ill, the risks outweigh the benefits.