Quotes About Overestimation

the confidence of ten mediocre men.

You have several significant flaws, including that once you are convinced you are capable of one thing of a certain scale, you are equally convinced you can handle more. You do not allow for their cumulative effects upon you. You are doing what you can.

We tend to overrate our individual contribution to groups, which, bluntly put, tends to lead to an overblown

Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments." This is the famous study by David Dunning and Justin Kruger of Cornell University in New York mentioned a few chapters ago that launched the new science of what we might call Stupidology. It

Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments.

It's only because of their stupidity that they're able to be so sure of themselves.

she thought that after what she had been through during the invasion she would stop being petty and grow up, grow wise and strong, but she had overestimated herself

Self-confidence is the expression of stupidity.

We grossly overestimate the length of the effect of misfortune on our lives. You think that the loss of your fortune or current position will be devastating, but you are probably wrong. More likely, you will adapt to anything, as you probably did after past misfortunes.

80 to 90% of people think that they are above the average (and the median) in many things.

The eye is bigger than the belly.

No man ever went broke overestimating the ignorance of the American public.

overestimating the intelligence of the enemy is, if anything, more dangerous than underestimating it.

People who watched too many movies about hackers had all sorts of ludicrous ideas about what they were capable of. In general, they hugely overestimated hackers' ability to do certain things. But there was one area in which hackers were routinely underestimated, and that was lock picking. For them, picking locks was a nice way to kick back and relax after a long day of doing pen tests on corporate networks.

We may appear great in an employment below our merit; but we often appear little in an employment that is too great for us.

Fear makes the wolf bigger than he is.

It's hard to avoid 'unconscious overclaiming.' In unconscious overclaiming, we unconsciously overestimate our contributions relative to others. This makes sense, because we're far more aware of what we do than what other people do. Also, we tend to do the work that we value.

There has been so much underestimating of animal cognition that to perhaps overestimate it, as I probably do, is probably a healthy reaction.

Chapter 7 takes a psychological truism, "we tend to believe what we think others believe" and turns it around: We tend to think others believe what we believe. This chapter examines a set of cognitive, social, and motivational processes that prompt us to overestimate the extent to which others share our beliefs, further bolstering our credulity.

As it turns out, however, the more specific reason that unskilled or incompetent people overestimate their abilities far more than others is because they lack a key skill called "metacognition." This is the ability to know when you're not good at something by stepping back, looking at what you're doing, and then realizing that you're doing it wrong.

The Dunning-Kruger Effect, in sum, means that the dumber you are, the more confident you are that you're not actually dumb.

There was a survey done a few years ago that affected me greatly. it was discovered that intelligent people either estimate their intelligence accurately or slightly underestimate themselves, but stupid people overestimate their intelligence and by huge margins. (And these were things like straight up math tests, not controversial IQ tests.)

When ambition outstrips ability, that is always a recipe for disaster.

Since all of them overestimated the competition, no one even showed up.