Quotes About Guesses

Just as a warm and moist environment is conducive to the spread of deadly bacteria, the worlds of politics and business especially—with their long time frames, complex outcomes, and murky cause and effect—are conducive to the spread of half-cocked guesses posing as fact. And here's why: the people making these wild guesses can usually get away with it!

REPORTER, n. A writer who guesses his way to the truth and dispels it with a tempest of words.

Kids' perceptions are not mediated by expectations and conventions in the been-there, done-that way that adult perception is; as adults, she explained, our minds don't simply take in the world as it is so much as they make educated guesses about it.

Pundits are no better at forecasting election outcomes than they would be at predicting the final path of a hurricane. Smart pundits should consider either abandoning this activity or consulting with the geeks before rendering their guesses.

We must regard all laws or theories as hypothetical or conjectural; that is, as guesses.

On Day One, a start-up is a faith-based initiative built on guesses.

Keep testing your guesses against the evidence. Keep trying out new guesses to see if they fit better. Keep looking for new evidence, even if it disproves your old hypotheses. With each step you get just a little closer to that elusive thing called "the truth.

Diagnoses, Dave thought, were rough guesses, blunt tools, always more inaccurate than they were helpful.

By virtue of her character, Kitty always assumed the most beautiful things of people, especially those she did not know. And now, making guesses about who was who, what relations they were in, and what sort of people they were, Kitty imagined to herself the most beautiful characters and found confirmation in her observations.

Approximating involves making a series of educated guesses systematically by partitioning the problem into manageable chunks, identifying assumptions, and then using your general knowledge of the world to fill in the blanks.

There are no secrets better kept than the secrets everybody guesses.

If we start deciding, based on guesses or emotions, whether we will or won't participate in a business where we should have some long run edge, we're in trouble.

Sometimes a stupid man is only a couple of good guesses away from looking clever.

Such, then, are the basics of Popper's methodology for science: You make bold guesses and try your best to show that they are wrong

Averaging two guesses by the same person does not improve judgments as much as does seeking out an independent second opinion. As Vul and Pashler put it, "You can gain about 1/10th as much from asking yourself the same question twice as you can from getting a second opinion from someone else." This is not a large improvement. But you can make the effect much larger by waiting to make a second guess.

The first surprise is that people's guesses are much more accurate than they would be by chance. I find this astonishing. A sense of cognitive ease is apparently generated by a very faint signal from the associative machine, which "knows" that the three words are coherent (share an association) long before the association is retrieved.

What, after all, is Heaven but a transition, from dim guesses and blind struggling with a mysterious and adverse fate, to the fullness of all wisdom.

Fanatics have their dreams wherewith they weave A paradise for a sect. The savage too From forth the loftiest fashion of his sleep Guesses at heaven.

3. Before the Queen guesses Rumplestiltskin's real name, she guesses two others, including a. Harry b. Joshua c. Jack d. Prince Charming

A core feature of this chapter is the notion that thoughts don't need to be true to have powerful effects on mood and motivation. Because of this, it is important to treat thoughts as guesses about the world, rather than facts.