Quotes About Probabilities

Presumption means nothing more than as stated by Lord Mansfield, the weighing of probabilities, and deciding, by the powers of common sense, on which side the truth is.

while probabilities encode our beliefs about a static world, causality tells us whether and how probabilities change when the world changes, be it by intervention or by act of imagination.

in marketing, advertising, and media our strategies have no inevitability about them. Just probabilities and likelihoods.

The method of the enterprising is to plan with audacity, and execute with vigor; to sketch out a map of possibilities, and then to treat them as probabilities.

That was the moment I gave up on decision analysis," said Danny. "No one ever made a decision because of a number. They need a story." As Danny and Lanir wrote, decades later, after the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency asked them to describe their experience in decision analysis, the Israeli Foreign Ministry was "indifferent to the specific probabilities.

The trouble, Danny suspected, was that "the understanding of numbers is so weak that they don't communicate anything. Everyone feels that those probabilities are not real—that they are just something on somebody's mind.

In Redelmeier's experience, doctors did not think statistically. "Eighty percent of doctors don't think probabilities apply to their patients," he said. "Just like 95 percent of married couples don't believe the 50 percent divorce rate applies to them, and 95 percent of drunk drivers don't think the statistics that show that you are more likely to be killed if you are driving drunk than if you are driving sober applies to them.

Cuando no tenemos evidencia concreta, utilizamos correctamente las probabilidades básicas; cuando disponemos de evidencia concreta pero inútil, no se tienen en cuenta las probabilidades básicas

It is impossible to trap modern physics into predicting anything with perfect determinism because it deals with probabilities from the outset.

So what can we do? The big idea is to make a model that lets us estimate the probabilities with which sequences should occur—even though we've never explicitly seen those sequences in the corpus of text we've looked at. And at the core of ChatGPT is precisely a so-called "large language model" (LLM) that's been built to do a good job of estimating those probabilities.

Physicists traced the failure to the jitters of quantum uncertainty. Mathematical techniques had been developed for analyzing the jitters of the strong, weak, and electromagnetic fields, but when the same methods were applied to the gravitational field-a field that governs the curvature of spacetime itself-they proved ineffective. This left the mathematics saturated with inconsistencies such as infinite probabilities.

Reason, said Butler, provides no complete system of knowledge, and in ordinary life it can offer us only probabilities.

And all I'm saying is that it is within our capability to survive. I don't guarantee it. Prophecy is a lost art. And I don't know what the probabilities are that we will go one way or another. And no one says it's easy. But it is clear, as Einstein said, that if we do not make a change in our way of thinking, all is lost.

Was he happy? One would ask that question in vain. A question like this makes sense only when applied to creatures who are rich in alternative possibilities, so that the actual truth can be contrasted with partly real probabilities and reflect itself in them.

The laws of history are as absolute as the laws of physics, and if the probabilities of error are greater, it is only because history does not deal with as many humans as physics does atoms, so that individual variations count for more.

The laws of history are as absolute as the laws of physics, and if the probabilities of error are greater, it is only because history does not deal with as many humans as physics does atoms, so that individual variations count for more. Seldon predicted a series of crises through the thousand years of growth, each of which would force a new turning of our history into a pre-calculated path. It is those crises which direct us – and therefore a crisis must come now.

All business proceeds on beliefs, on judgements of probabilities, and not on certainties.

All business proceeds on beliefs, or judgment of probabilities, and not on certainties.

Bullish or bearish are terms used by people who do not engage in practicing uncertainty, like the television commentators, or those who have no experience in handling risk. Alas, investors and businesses are not paid in probabilities; they are paid in dollars. Accordingly, it is not how likely an event is to happen that matters, it is how much is made when it happens that should be the consideration.

Maybes. Possibles. Don't knows.

The solidity of the classical vision of the world is nothing other than our own myopia. The certainties of classical physics are just probabilities. The well-defined and solid picture of the world given by the old physics is an illusion.

The moment of enlightenment is when a person's dreams of possibilities become images of probabilities.

Accidents happen. That's what everyone says. But in a quantum universe there are no such things as accidents, only possibilities and probabilities folded into existence by perception.

A man must study general conditions, to seize them so as to be able to anticipate probabilities.