Quotes About Decision

Whenever we can replace human judgment by a formula, we should at least consider it.

controlling thoughts and behaviors is one of the tasks that System 2 performs.

When Vul and Pashler let three weeks pass before asking their subjects the same question again, the benefit rose to one-third the value of a second opinion.

Their recommendation is that you should not put too much weight on regret; even if you have some, it will hurt less than you now think.

people who make judgments behave as if a true value exists, regardless of whether it does.

Bernoulli observed that most people dislike risk (the chance of receiving the lowest possible outcome), and if they are offered a choice between a gamble and an amount equal to its expected value they will pick the sure thing. In fact a risk-averse decision maker will choose a sure thing that is less than expected value, in effect paying a premium to avoid the uncertainty.

The suppression of doubt contributes to overconfidence in a group where only supporters of the decision have a voice.

System 1 is gullible and biased to believe, System 2 is in charge of doubting and unbelieving, but System 2 is sometimes busy, and often lazy.

From the perspective of noise reduction, a singular decision is a recurrent decision that happens only once. Whether you make a decision only once or a hundred times, your goal should be to make it in a way that reduces both bias and noise. And practices that reduce error should be just as effective in your one-of-a-kind decisions as in your repeated ones.

Decision makers tend to prefer the sure thing over the gamble (they are risk averse) when the outcomes are good. They tend to reject the sure thing and accept the gamble (they are risk seeking) when both outcomes are negative. These conclusions were well established for choices about gambles and sure things in the domain of money.

People don't choose between things, they choose between descriptions of things.

Why call them System 1 and System 2 rather than the more descriptive "automatic system" and "effortful system"? The reason is simple: "Automatic system" takes longer to say than "System 1" and therefore takes more space in your working memory. This matters, because anything that occupies your working memory reduces your ability to think.

The thought of accepting the large sure loss is too painful, and the hope of complete relief too enticing, to make the sensible decision that it is time to cut one's losses.

Many unfortunate human situations unfold [. . .] where people who face bad options take desperate gambles, accepting a high probability of making things worse in exchange for a small hope of avoiding a large loss. The thought of accepting the large sure loss is too painful, and the hope of complete relief is too enticing, to make the sensible decision that it is time to cut one's losses.

suppression of doubt contributes to overconfidence in a group where only supporters of the decision have a voice. The main virtue of the premortem is that it legitimizes doubts.

people expect to have stronger emotional reactions (including regret) to an outcome that is produced by action than to the same outcome when it is produced by inaction.

The Robust Beauty of Improper Linear Models in Decision Making.

Betty is much more likely to take her chances, as others do when faced with very bad options. As

From the perspective of noise reduction, a singular decision is a recurrent decision that happens only once.

Speaking of Singular Decisions "The way you approach this unusual opportunity exposes you to noise." "Remember: a singular decision is a recurrent decision that is made only once." "The personal experiences that made you who you are are not truly relevant to this decision.

The procedure I adopted to tame the halo effect conforms to a general principle: decorrelate error!

Poignancy (a close cousin of regret) is a counterfactual feeling, which

risk-averse decision maker will choose a sure thing that is less than expected value, in effect paying a premium to avoid the uncertainty.

Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk