Quotes About Strategy

But top management is only paid on result—no matter the process.

Beware of precise plans by governments. As

what they have is skill in getting promoted within a company rather than pure skills in making optimal decisions—we call that "corporate political skill.

My declared approach was to try to make money infrequently.

The last thing a trader needs to do is be scientific or play econometrician during buisness hours.

his showing up during a battle was the equivalent of adding twenty-five thousand troops.

everything is "organized" with optimizing intent

Option = asymmetry + rationality

he understood optionality mathematically, but not really outside the equation.

Este mult mai dificil s? pierzi într-un joc pe care l-ai pus la punct tu însuÈ›i.

The strategy for the discoverers and entrepreneurs is to rely less on top-down planning and focus on maximum tinkering and recognizing opportunities when they present themselves. So I disagree with the followers of Marx and those of Adam Smith: the reason free markets work is because they allow people to be lucky

If you want to become antifragile, put yourself in the situation "loves mistakes"—to the right of "hates mistakes"—by making these numerous and small in harm. We will call this process and approach the "barbell" strategy.

Always remember that, in a modern environment, wars last longer and kill more people than is typically planned.

threats of the dagger-by-your-bed variety are even better for bloodless control.

It is a very powerful manipulation to let others win the small battles.

While a ten-year survival rate for a trader is in the single digits, that of a risk manager is close to 100%).

the second lesson is more aggressive: you can actually take advantage of the problem of prediction and epistemic arrogance!

I engage in a gambling strategy that has 999 chances in 1,000 of making $ 1 (event A) and 1 chance in 1,000 of losing $ 10,000 (event B), as in Table 6.1. My expectation is a loss of close to $ 9 (obtained by multiplying the probabilities by the corresponding outcomes).

This dovetails into the "barbell" strategy of taking maximum exposure to the positive Black Swans while remaining paranoid about the negative ones.

I discovered that it is much more effective to act like a nice guy and be "reasonable

You were wrong for years, right for a moment, losing small, winning big, so vastly more successful than the other way

Bent Flyvbjerg (do capítulo 18) mostrou, em seu Black Swan Management [Gerenciamento do Cisne Negro], a

Even trial and error are a form of barbell.

A ESTRATÉGIA BARBELL DE SÊNECA Isso nos leva à solução