Quotes About Probability

Kuantum mekaniÄŸi konusunda çok çal??mak gerekir.Ama içimden bir ses bana bunun her ÅŸeyin çözümü olmad???n? söylüyor.Bu teoriyle birçok ÅŸey aç?klan?yor; ama hala O'nun s?rr?n? çözebilmiÅŸ deÄŸiliz.Ben yine de O'nun zar at?p kumar oynad???n?,hiç mi hiç sanm?yorum.

But then the course of events takes no account of verisimilitude. Fiction has to be probable; fact does not.

Or consider another field where one can use games to implant an understanding of basic principles. All scientific thinking is in terms of probability. The old eternal verities are merely a high degree of likeliness; the immutable laws of nature are just statistical averages. How does one get these profoundly unobvious notions into children's heads? By playing roulette with them, by spinning coins and drawing lots. By teaching them all kinds of games with cards and boards and dice.

But the kings of modern times, restrained by the limits of mere probability, have neither courage nor desire. They fear the eat that hears their orders, and the eye that scrutinizes their actions.

Everything in life is luck.

The major difference between a thing that might go wrong and a thing that cannot possibly go wrong is that…

you take two radioactive atoms, absolutely identical in every conceivable way, they will decay randomly. The first might decay immediately, while the second doesn't do the same for an hour or more. Why the difference? After all, they're identical. Scientists have never found any way to explain it, or predict when this decay will occur.

Fifteen years ago, Elon Musk calculated that the probability we're living our lives in base reality, rather than a simulation, was infinitesimally small.

Rule of Five There is a 93.75% chance that the median of a population is between the smallest and largest values in any random sample of five from that population.

The most important questions of life are indeed, for the most part, really only problems of probability. —Pierre Simon Laplace, Théorie Analytique des Probabilités, 1812

Creeping determinism means that we pay less attention than we should to the things that don't happen.

If the answer isn't clear to you, you're not alone—even mathematicians argue about what it means to assign a probability to a single event.

The correct way to think about an extended warranty is: What's my probability of a total loss? Multiply that by the total cost.

Mathematically speaking, it seems impossible that there isn't life out our planet. If you flick on the news, it certainly seems like we have aliens among us.

However well organised the foundations of life may be, life must always be full of risks.

I have never played the lottery in my life and never will. Voltaire described lotteries as a tax on stupidity. More specifically, I think, on innumeracy.

This is the central illusion in life: that randomness is a risk, that it is a bad thing.

All of life is a wager

Statistical high Vegas odds probability is that nothing of any significance will ever happen to you in your entire boring life.

In real life a right-angled triangle is very unlikely to have a square on its hypotenuse.

Almost all life depends on probabilities.

Vending machines kill more people each year than sharks. Statistically, you are twice as likely to be killed by a vending machine than a shark

Betting and gambling are suitable for discrete events but not for continuous processes. If you introduce the behavioral characteristics of betting or gambling into a continuous process, you are leaving yourself open to enormous losses.

1. The first psychological fallacy is the tendency to overvalue wagers involving a low probability of a high gain and to undervalue wagers involving a relatively high probability of low gain. The best examples are the favorites and the long shots at racetracks.