Quotes About Probability

LOTTERY TICKET: a voluntary tax paid by people who are extremely bad at math.

Pense na vida como uma imensa roleta. Há probabilidades infinitas à nossa espera. Coisas boas, coisas más. De vez em quando acontece uma coisa boa. De vez em quando acontece uma coisa ruim. Quem é responsável? Ninguém.

Entropy theory is indeed a first attempt to deal with global form; but it has not been dealing with structure. All it says is that a large sum of elements may have properties not found in a smaller sample of them. Entropy theory, on the other hand, is not concerned with the probability of succession in a series of items but with the overall distribution of kinds of items in a given arrangement.

Coincidence is the superstition of the skeptic.

But what if--- Most of what if never happens.

Should not thou rather blame thyself, who, when upon very good grounds of reason, thou mightst have thought it very probable, that such a thing would by such a one be committed, didst not only not foresee it, but moreover dost wonder at it, that such a thing should be.

The idea that you will make the right decision every time is very unlikely.

If there weren't luck involved, I would win every time.

If you never bluff, you'll rarely get called. If you bluff all the time, you'll always get called.

The reason lightning doesn't strike twice in the same place is that the same place isn't there the second time.

And why should I take it for granted that my son will be one in a thousand? – and not rather prepare for the worst, and suppose he will be like his – like the rest of mankind, unless I take care to prevent it?

MOST THINGS DON'T HAPPEN

Annie Duke, former world champion of poker, teaches us that there's a huge gap between a good decision and a good outcome. A good decision is based on what we know of the options and the odds. A good outcome happens or it doesn't: it is a consequence of the odds, not the hidden answer.

past performance is no guarantee of future success.

Yet Laplace had built his probability theory on intuition. As far as he was concerned, essentially, the theory of probability is nothing but good common sense reduced to mathematics. It provides an exact appreciation of what sound minds feel with a kind of instinct, frequently without being able to account for it.

As Dennis Lindley had argued, if someone attaches a prior probability of zero the hypothesis that the moon is made of green cheese, then the whole armies of astronauts coming back bearing green cheese cannot convince him.

If life really depends on each gene being as unique as it appears to be, then it is too unique to come into being by chance mutations.

It's overwhelmingly likely that life exists on other planets.

Probability is the guide of life, and of death, too.

For example, if the big bang had been one-part-in-a billion more powerful, it would have rushed out too fast for the galaxies to form and for life to begin.

The probability of life ever evolving on Earth was slim to none. It's insane that we're all walking around and talking.

Hold'em - like life itself - has its defining moment. It's the flop. When you see the flop, you're looking at 71 percent of your hand, and the cost is only a single round of betting.

It's hard to believe in coincidence, but it's even harder to believe in anything else.

Is there some risk every day we walk out our front door? Every time we get in our car? Yeah. Are we materially less safe now than we were 10 years ago? Whatever delta there is, it's very small.