Quotes About Probability

Given the infinite number of coincidences that could happen, very few ever actually do. The universe exists in a coincidence-hating state of anti-fluke.

Being insignificant statistically doesn't mean it's right or wrong. It just means you don't have enough data to show yes or no.

Porque la suerte no depende de ti, sino del azar.

Have you ever heard of the law of large numbers? If you carry on betting large sums day after day, then sooner or later you are bound to win everything back." As far

The wise build their doctrines--theological and philosophical--upon a basis of probabilities, never upon the foundation of absolute certainty.

that, "as unlikely as this string of events is, we are evaluating options to make this case even less likely." After those incidents, employees had to write a

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable,

Probably. Again with the probablys. A world full of probablys, she said.

When it came down to it, though, could anything be completely correct, or completely incorrect? We lived in a world where rain might fall thirty percent, or seventy percent, of the time. Truth was probably no different. There could be thirty percent or seventy percent truth.

can only express a likelihood of purchase in probabilistic terms. Thus

A scientist worthy of a lab coat should be able to make original discoveries while wearing a clown suit, or give a lecture in a high squeaky voice from inhaling helium. It is written nowhere in the math of probability theory that one may have no fun.

I knew the HIV virus was something anyone could get but also believed the chances were very slim... I honestly believed I had a better chance of winning the lottery than contracting this disease. I have never been so wrong in my life.

No one can escape the iron rule that once you make a forecast, you know you're going to be wrong; you just don't know when and in which direction!

When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.

If there is a 50-50 chance that something can go wrong, then 9 times out of ten it will.

We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way.

Free yourself from the rigid conduct of tradition and open yourself to the new forms of probability.

In the financial system we have today, with less risk concentrated in banks, the probability of systemic financial crises may be lower than in traditional bank-centered financial systems.

What people fear most about tragedy is its randomness - a taxi cab jumps the curb and hits a pedestrian, a gun misfires and kills a bystander. Better to have some rational cause and effect between incident and injury. And if cause and effect aren't possible, better that there at least be some reward for all the suffering.

Chess is a great training ground for poker players because it's a math-based game, much like backgammon is.

God's dice always have a lucky roll.

The dice of Zeus always fall luckily.

A Throw of the Dice Will Never Abolish Chance.

If a man who can't count finds a four leaf clover, is he lucky?