Quotes About Probability

Nem sempre há segurança nos números, e às vezes as circunstâncias influem muitas nas ações dos homens.

Very possible! Possible, indeed. Maybe even probable, which, as you know if you study your arithmetic,can happen more often than possible. In other words, probable is more possible than possible. - Bubo

In the financial world, risk translates to uncertainty. It's measured by "standard deviation from the norm" -- in other words, it's measured by how much the returns swing up and down. Says King, "Most individuals measure risk as their chance of loss, but we measure risk by the variability of returns.

La mera negativa era demasiado aleatoria, porque a veces la nada puede ser la respuesta acertada, y yo jamás habría dejado mi suerte en manos del azar.

Those who trust to chance must abide by the results of chance.

Saying that you want to be a model when you grow up is akin to saying that you want to win the Powerball when you grow up. It's out of your control and it's awesome — and it's not a career path.

Often, the very fact that you are worrying about something means that it isn't likely to happen.

I've presented these facts about the frequency of violence for a reason: to increase the likelihood that you will believe it is at least possible that you or someone you care for will be a victim at some time. That belief is a key element in recognizing when you are in the presence of danger. That belief balances denial, the powerful and cunning enemy of successful predictions.

In Operations, many of our data sets have what we call 'chi squared' distribution. Using

We need to focus on the riskiest changes," I continue. "The 80/20 rule likely applies here: Twenty percent of the changes pose eighty percent of the risk.

Probability said that someday we would run out of luck—as

Now, of course, most oratory deals with matters of probability, not certainty, and most evidence is in the realm of the probable, not the scientifically demonstrable

Probability is expectation founded upon partial knowledge. A perfect acquaintance with all the circumstances affecting the occurrence of an event would change expectation into certainty, and leave nether room nor demand for a theory of probabilities.

probability is a truth, known however through insufficient grounds, the knowledge of which is therefore deficient, but not deceptive [...]

But it was just luck really if the girls survived. You're like a man firing a machine gun into a supermarket who happens not to become a murderer.

Statistically speaking, he reflects, you're more likely to be killed by a member of your own family or a close friend, than by anyone else.

The Three Theorems of Psychohistorical Quantitivity: The population under scrutiny is oblivious to the existence of the science of Psychohistory. The time periods dealt with are in the region of 3 generations. The population must be in the billions (±75 billions) for a statistical probability to have a psychohistorical validity.

Baley distrusted overstatement and had no liking for the armchair deducer who discovered certainty rather than probability in the workings of logic.

People are entirely too disbelieving of coincidence. They are far too ready to dismiss it and to build arcane structures of extremely rickety substance in order to avoid it. I, on the other hand, see coincidence everywhere as an inevitable consequence of the laws of probability, according to which having no unusual coincidence is far more unusual than any coincidence could possibly be.

There is probability of 1.7% that I will be executed, but of course that will not stop the project. We have taken that into account as well.

You must not say 'never.' That is a lazy slurring-over of the facts. Actually, Psychohistory predicts only probabilities. A particular event may be infinitesimally probable, but the probability is always greater than zero.

Eliminate the impossible and whatever remained, however improbable, was the truth.

I bet on a lot of stuff that's low-priced, and most of it's going to go back down to zero. But some of it's going to go up.

The dice of Zeus always fall luckily.