Quotes About Probability

the real is coherent and probable because it is real, not real because it is coherent...

the real is coherent and probable because it is real, and not real because it is coherent...

We are not spectators of a closed history; we are actors in an open history, our praxis introduces the element of construction rather than knowledge as an ingredient of the world, making the world not simply an object of contemplation but something to be transformed. What we cannot imagine is a consciousness without a future and a history with an end. Thus, as long as there are men, the future will be open and there will only be a probabilistic calculation and no absolute knowledge.

The perceived world is a world where there is discontinuity, where there is probability and generality, where each being is not constrained to a unique and fixed location, to an absolute density of being.

Para nosotros, un acto de economía "capitalista" significa un acto que descansa en la expectativa de una ganancia debida al juego de recíprocas probabilidades de cambio; es decir, en probabilidades (formalmente) pacíficas de lucro.

It is a part of probability that many improbable things will happen. —Aristotle, Poetics, XXV

A doctor's job, like a gambler's, is intimately tied up with failure; the house always wins over time.

The probability that a genius can do stupid things is much higher than the probability that a stupid can do genius things.

We have a poor mathematical, as well as a poor intuitive understanding of the nature of coincidence.

no statistical prediction can or will ever be 100 percent accurate—because human beings are not and never will be statistics.

We don't 'see' odds – how likely the thing is – we 'see' consequences. That's what people would mean if they were to say 'picture the risk'. They mean picture the worst that can happen.

The number of shots taken by an opponent who is out of sight is equal to the square root of the sum of the number of curses heard plus the number of swishes.

In a probabilistic environment, you are better served by focusing on the process by which you make a decision than on the outcome

Deliberate practice works when skill dominates, while a focus on process and probability is appropriate when luck is the greater force.

Randomness and luck are related, but there is a useful distinction between the two. You can think of randomness as operating at the level of a system and luck operating at the level of the individual.

There are no good or bad horses, just correctly or incorrectly priced ones. This principle holds across all probabilistic domains: again, the goal is to get more than you pay for.

The key to statistical prediction is to figure out how much weight you should assign to the base rate and specific case. If the expected accuracy of the prediction is low, you should place most of the weight on the base rate. If the expected accuracy is high, you can rely more on the specific case.

Religious faith depends on a host of social, psychological and emotional factors that have little or nothing to do with probabilities, evidence and logic

What is the probability that Yahweh is the one true god, and Amon Ra, Aphrodite, Apollo, Baal, Brahma, Ganesha, Isis, Mithra, Osiris, Shiva, Thor, Vishnu, Wotan, Zeus, and the other 986 gods are false gods? As skeptics like to say, everyone is an atheist about these gods; some of us just go one god further.

But think about it: Right from the start the odds are against you. It's kind of amazing that any of us ever get here at all.

How much of a role does luck play in trading? In the long run, zero. Absolutely zero. I don't think anybody winds up make money in this business because they started out lucky.

The 50–50–90 rule: Anytime you have a 50–50 chance of getting something right, there's a 90% probability you'll get it wrong. Andy Rooney

Trend trader Larry Hite put it another way: "There are four kinds of bets. There are good bets, bad bets, bets that you win, and bets that you lose.

No te parece que esa idea de la necesidad no es sino la forma suprema que el azar toma en nuestra mente?