Quotes About Fallacy

Every problem I have comes from believing something to be true that is not true.

I'm not a believer in the pratfall. I don't think it's funny just to have someone fall down.

The Latin name for the fallacy of appealing to an illegitimate authority or expert is argumentum ad verecundiam, which means "argument to shame.

This is a seam that will run throughout this book, confronting and dispelling the culturally ubiquitous idea that genes are fate, and a certain type of any one gene will determine exactly what an individual is like. That this is a fallacy is universally known among geneticists, yet it is still an idea that carries a lot of cultural significance, fueled frequently by the media and an ultra-simplistic understanding of the absurd complexities of human biology.

This should not come as a surprise: overly optimistic forecasts of the outcome of projects are found everywhere. Amos and I coined the term planning fallacy to describe plans and forecasts that are unrealistically close to best-case scenarios could be improved by consulting the statistics of similar cases Examples of the planning fallacy abound in the experiences of individuals, governments, and businesses.

Examples of the planning fallacy abound in the experiences of individuals, governments, and businesses. The list of horror stories is endless.

The strong bias toward believing that small samples closely resemble the population from which they are drawn is also part of a larger story: we are prone to exaggerate the consistency and coherence of what we see.

Narrative fallacies arise inevitably from our continuous attempt to make sense of the world.

The hot hand is a massive and widespread cognitive illusion.

Amos and I coined the term planning fallacy to describe plans and forecasts that are unrealistically close to best-case scenarios could be improved by consulting the statistics of similar cases

The procedure I adopted to tame the halo effect conforms to a general principle: decorrelate error!

The sunk-cost fallacy keeps people for too long in poor jobs, unhappy marriages, and unpromising research projects. I have often observed young scientists struggling to salvage a doomed project when they would be better advised to drop it and start a new one. Fortunately, research suggests that at least in some contexts the fallacy can be overcome. The

The sunk-cost fallacy keeps people for too long in poor jobs, unhappy marriages, and unpromising research projects. I

The hot hand is entirely in the eye of the beholders, who are consistently too quick to perceive order and causality in randomness.

planning fallacy

In such cases, the greatest responsibility for avoiding the planning fallacy lies with the decision makers who approve the plan. If they do not recognize the need for an outside view, they commit a planning fallacy.

When forecasting the outcomes of risky projects, executives too easily fall victim to the planning fallacy. In its grip, they make decisions based on delusional optimism rather than on a rational weighting of gains, losses, and probabilities. They overestimate benefits and underestimate costs. They spin scenarios of success while overlooking the potential for mistakes and miscalculations.

shed new light on the planning fallacy

judgment heuristics "are quite useful, but sometimes lead to severe and systematic errors.

Ad hominem: An abbreviation for argumentum ad hominem, meaning an argument against an idea or statement based on the character of the person who authored it. It is sometimes used to discredit a philosophy of life proclaimed by someone who does not live up to it himself, as in, "He talks the talk, but he doesn't walk the walk, so I'm not listening to his advice.

The "United States are" was the clear intention at the founding of the Union, while "United States is" was a later usage adopted to reinforce a fallacy about the construction of the Union.

The trouble is that we often don't remember them correctly.

Many a statistic is false on its face. It gets by only because the magic of numbers bring about a suspension of common sense

the practical utility of Formal Logic to-day lies not so much in the establishment of positive conclusions as in the prompt detection and exposure of invalid inference.