Quotes About Estimation

To figure out whether a decision is good or bad, you need to know not just the things that might reasonably happen and what could be gained or lost, but also the likelihood of each possibility unfolding. That means, to become a better decision-maker, you need to be willing to estimate those probabilities.

In addition to making precise (bull's-eye) estimates, offer a range around that estimate to express your uncertainty. Do this by including a lower and upper bound that communicate the size of your target.

The size of the range signals what you know and what you don't know. The larger the range, the less information or the lower the quality of the information informing your estimate, and the more you need to learn. Communicating the size of the range also signals to others that you need their knowledge and perspective to narrow the range.

How many onions do you think we've eaten?" he asked. Zero shrugged. "I don't even know how long we've been here." "I'd say about a week," said Stanley. "And we probably each eat about twenty onions a day, so that's…" "Two hundred and eighty onions," said Zero. Stanley smiled. "I bet we really stink.

According to the Update Log, the company estimated that a member of the public, eating seaweed and seafood harvested from nearby the nuclear plant every day for a year, would receive an additional annual radiation dose of 0.6 millisieverts, well below the level that would be dangerous to human health. The company didn't estimate the consequences to the fish.

It is also true that the less competent a person is in a given domain, the more he will tend to overestimate his abilities. This often produces an ugly marriage of confidence and ignorance that is very difficult to correct for.

Just make the right estimation of your own strengths and weaknesses, and also that of your opponent.

The measure of a man's estimate of your strength is the kind of weapons he feels that he must use in order to hold you fast in a prescribed place.

Lo que voy a deciros se os antojará extraño a vosotros, señores socialistas, progresistas, humanitaristas, y es que yo no me ocupo nunca de mi prójimo, no procuro nunca proteger a la sociedad que no me protege, y diré aún más, que no se ocupa generalmente de mí, sino para perjudicarme, y retirándoles mi estimación y guardando la neutralidad frente a ellos, es aún la sociedad y mi prójimo quienes me deben agradecimiento.

Flowers grow on her tiny wrought-iron balcony, and in summer she can estimate what time of day it is by feeling how wide the petals of the evening primroses have opened.

The method of magnitude estimation provided a direct measure of sensation.

Rounding to the nearest cent is sufficiently accurate for practical purposes.

We will never know exactly how many women disguised themselves as men and fought in the Civil War. At the close of the hostilities, it was estimated that approximately 400 women had managed to enlist, but this number is almost certainly too low.

Lo considero un amigo, a veces sucede que se puede estimar a una persona aunque nunca se haya hablado con ella. Se las observa y se piensa en ellas, y se comparten sus preocupaciones.

In my estimation, more misery has been created by reformers than by any other force in human history. Show me someone who says, "Something must be done!" and I will show you a head full of vicious intentions that have no other outlet.

For I underestimate myself, and that itself means an overestimation of others

The Golden Eagle, which has universally been considered as a bird of most extraordinary powers of flight, is in my estimation little more than a sluggard, though its wings are long and ample.

software people are terrible at estimating, because humans are terrible at estimating. Let's not just try harder. Let's find a better way.

There is one point, however, on which I wish you would give me a little enlightenment, and that is, how you can rest quietly when you reflect that there is someone who is doing his utmost to persuade others that you are as he sees you, endeavoring firmly to establish you in the estimation of others in accordance with his judgment of you, and to prevent others from seeing and judging you in any other manner?

When an estimate turns out wrong, don't just shrug and walk away. Find out why it differed from your guess. Maybe you chose some parameters that didn't match the reality of the problem. Maybe your model was wrong. Whatever the reason, take some time to uncover what happened. If you do, your next estimate will be better.

If you think your odds of solving your problem are bad, don't rule out the possibility that what is really happening is that you are bad at estimating odds.

Never make a calculation until you know the answer. Make an estimate before every calculation, try a simple physical argument (symmetry! invariance! conservation!) before every derivation, guess the answer to every paradox and puzzle. Courage: No one else needs to know what the guess is. Therefore make it quickly, by instinct. A right guess reinforces this instinct. A wrong guess brings the refreshment of surprise. In either case life as a spacetime expert, however long, is more fun!

There is no medium between the two things: the earth must either be worthless in our estimation, or keep us enslaved by an intemperate love of it.

In forming an estimate of sins, we are often imposed upon by imagining that the more hidden the less heinous they are.