Quotes About Uncertainty

the antifragile benefits from volatility and disorder, the fragile is harmed.

el mayor y más acuciante objetivo humano es comprender cómo actuar en condiciones de información incompleta.

Outside of textbooks and casinos, probability almost never presents itself as a mathematical problem or a brain teaser.

Consider that the feeling of safety reached its maximum when the risk was at the highest!

Economics cannot digest the idea that the collective (and the aggregate) are disproportionately less predictable than individuals.

Randomness will be ruled out as a possible factor in the performance

cash borrowed from destiny with some random payback time.

this approach is exactly backward:

As much as it is ingrained in our habits and conventional wisdom, confirmation can be a dangerous error.

Mistaking a naïve observation of the past as something definitive or representative of the future is the one and only cause of our inability to understand the Black Swan.

What is fragile will eventually break; and, luckily, we can easily tell what is fragile. Positive Black Swans are more unpredictable than negative ones.

I count myself one of those).

If you believe that witnessing an additional white swan will bring confirmation that there are no black swans, then you should also accept the statement, on purely logical grounds, that the sighting of a red Mini Cooper should confirm that there are no black swans.

The Black Swans we imagine, discuss, and worry about do not resemble those likely to be Black Swans. We worry about the wrong "improbable" events, as

there is no other way to produce a forecast without being a turkey somewhere, particularly in the complex environment in which we live today.

in real life, every single bit of risk you take adds up to reduce your life expectancy.

narrated Black Swans, those that are present in the current discourse and that you are likely to hear about on television, and

The more uncertainty, the more valuable the option.

we will look at it with respect to resistance to randomness.

although no single action will have a meaningful effect.

It means that rational thinking has little, very little, to do with risk avoidance. Much of what rational thinking seems to do is rationalize one's actions by fitting some logic to them.

as they think that they will beat the odds.

Epistemic arrogance bears a double effect: we overestimate what we know, and underestimate uncertainty, by compressing the range of possible uncertain states (i.e., by reducing the space of the unknown).

the nonlinearity (that is, the asymmetry, with more upside than downside; asymmetry is a form of nonlinearity).