Quotes About Uncertainty

The cost estimate of the prospectus turned out to be a best possible outcome based on the unlikely assumption that everything would go according to plan with no delays, no changes in performance specifications, no management problems, no problems with contractual arrangements or new technologies or geology, no major conflicts, no political promises not kept, and so on.

The critical next step is to stop thinking of black swans the way most people do. They are not bolt-from-the-blue freak accidents that are impossible to understand or prevent. They can be studied. And mitigated.

By now you know the solution to the puzzle I discussed at the end of the previous chapter: Only five project types—solar power, wind power, fossil thermal power, electricity transmission, and roads—are not fat-tailed, meaning that they, unlike all the rest, do not have a considerable risk of going disastrously wrong. So what sets the fortunate five apart? They are all modular to a considerable degree, some extremely so.

Finally, don't forget black swans. All projects are vulnerable to unpredictable shocks, with their vulnerability growing as time passes. So the fact that the delivery of your one huge thing will take a very long time means that it is at high risk of being walloped by something you cannot possibly anticipate.

Uncertainty in estimating viability is related in this way not only to the innate difficulty of predicting the future but also to power and interests.

The infirmity of human nature renders all plans precarious in the execution in proportion as they are extensive in design.

Ma abbiamo paura, viviamo sempre tremando e per questo la vita ci disgusta, ma l'amiamo anche ed è tremendo andare a letto ogni sera senza la certezza di svegliarsi al mattino.

You can plan events, but if they go according to your plan they are not events.

We know well what we lose by death, but we know not what we gain.

There might have been a sky of blue for me and you We'll never know There might have been a garden, too, where roses grew We'll never know We might have built a castle high For you were young and so was I But we just kissed and said "Goodbye" And so We'll never know

My secret demon is called: What's the use?

There's all these people waiting, like waiting for something is enough to make it happen. That's the future, having something to wait for. I'm glad I don't have a future then. I hate waiting.

This is always the problem with building heroes. To keep them pure, we must build them stupid. The world is built on compromise and uncertainty, and such a place is too complex for heroes to flourish.

Human spirit is the ability to face the uncertainty of the future with curiosity and optimism. It is the belief that problems can be solved, differences resolved.

For me, the words 'Anything is possible' haven't served as a bolstering of hope as much as a warning to run for cover

There are seasons of our lives when nothing seems to be happening, when no smoke betrays a burned town or homestead and few tears are shed for the newly dead. I have learned not to trust those times, because if the world is at peace then it means someone is planning war.

For the Fabers, isolating Leslie in a program for the retarded helped protect her, but only for the six hours of the school day. The rest of the time, they could only hope their child had enough judgment to stay out of trouble. No matter what precautions they took, parents could never be sure.

I am neither happy nor sad, neither really tense nor really relaxed. Perhaps that is the way it is when a man gazes at the stars, asking himself questions he is not mature enough to answer. So one day he is happy, the next a bit sad without knowing why. It is a little like the horizon: for all your distinctly seeing sky and sea come together on the same line, for all your constantly making for it, the horizon stays at the same distance, right at hand and out of reach.

Üleminekud on alati ebakindlad ja ohtlikud.

Cela vous inquiète ? - Non. Les changements ne sont pas inquiétants. L'immobilité et le mensonge sont bien pires.

Life is about taking risks, not about burying your head in the sand

who doesn't know what she wants in the long term so takes short-term temping contracts, saves, goes off backpacking like a teenager, returns to England full of stories but her career hasn't moved on

me voy con el viento malvado que me lleva de acá para allá, igual que a la hoja muerta»

Keeping her man well fed and fucked are number one priorities that she can't slack on because you can never know when a woman dressed to the nines with a blond wig, long legs and a high fat ass that should have been equal to you in almost every way may decide to hop on the first southbound Greyhound and end up looking at you through whispering letters on a dusty storefront window.