Quotes About Predicting

One, which I mention several times elsewhere, is the need for patience if big profits are to be made from investment. Put another way, it is often easier to tell what will happen to the price of a stock than how much time will elapse before it happens. The other is the inherently deceptive nature of the stock market. Doing what everybody else is doing at the moment, and therefore what you have an almost irresistible urge to do, is often the wrong thing to do at all.

Succeeding in stocks comes down to accepting that nobody can know the future, and then adopting an investment system that wins by reacting rather than predicting.

She said the words, and then she had a strange moment of seeing them, hanging there over her head. You're going to vacuum up that squirrel! There is just no predicting what kind of sentences you might say, thought Flora. For instance, who would ever think you would shout, You're going to vacuum up that squirrel!?

papers that the market was down to new lows, and the experts were predicting that it was sure to drop another 200 points in the Dow, then the farmer would look through the Standard & Poor's Stock Guide and select around 30 stocks that had fallen in price substantially.

Those market researchers... are playing games with you and me and with this entire country. Their so-called samples of opinion are no more accurate or reliable than my grandmother's big toe was when it came to predicting the weather.

The consequences of our actions are always so complicated, so diverse, that predicting the future is a very difficult business indeed.

Science is a little bit more than a wonderful way of modelling and predicting; it's a wonderful technical abstraction. I think science is a really wonderful technical abstraction.

The consequences of adverse economics events are typically exaggerated by the Armageddonists--a sensation-seeking herd of pundits, seers, and journalists who make a living by predicting the worst.

Only once this story has been completed and agreed upon can we say what the relevant events were, or which were the most important. Thus it follows that predicting the importance of events requires predicting not just the events themselves but also the outcome of the social process that makes sense of them.

Hindsight bias is the tendency, after an outcome is known, to see the outcome as having been inevitable. When we say, "I should have known that would happen," or, "I should have seen it coming," we are succumbing to hindsight bias.

I typically don't get into predicting the success of my projects. I've been involved with a lot of projects that I thought should have really gained notoriety and furthered my career, only to be met with the cold grasp of disappointment. So I typically stay away from predicting how a film will do.

Insofar as international law is observed, it provides us with stability and order and with a means of predicting the behavior of those with whom we have reciprocal legal obligations.

I am incredibly bad at predicting the future; I am only smart enough to observe the present and listen to my intuition about tendencies.

But what I did sense was an emptiness like a black hole inside of him, and there was no predicting what might emerge from a place like that.

I think almost all strategic problems could at least be improved upon if people would do more careful game-theoretic analysis. The reason game theory works in predicting is because people intuit how to behave game-theoretically.

Forty-three percent of mass public shooters were seeing mental health care professionals prior to their shootings (Figure 15). The New York Times came up with a slightly higher number when it analyzed mass public shootings from 1949 to 1999.46 The results confirm something that we have known for a long time — it is very difficult for psychiatric professionals to know who will actually commit mass murder.

Though much of serious academia rejects the notion of "radicalization"—there is no empirical basis for predicting when an individual will commit acts of violence—the approach generally followed by law enforcement, whatever its flaws, follows the "bunch of guys" theory: the idea that young people join radical groups through peer pressure and in clusters.

Every cancer looks different. Every cancer has similarities to other cancers. And we're trying to milk those differences and similarities to do a better job of predicting how things are going to work out and making new drugs.

Relax!" old Ben urged him. "Be free. You're trying to use your eyes and ears. Stop predicting and use the rest of your mind.

The increasing frequency of extreme weather events, droughts and floods is in line with what climate scientists have been predicting for decades - and evidence is mounting that what's happening is more severe than predicted, and will get far worse still if we fail to act.

Here in New York, we're media obsessed. Writers write about writers who write about writers and reporters and freelancers, and it's just a festival of information. We're all analyzing and examining and predicting, and I can't imagine that it's like that everywhere else.

I come back to the same thing: We've got the greatest pipeline in the company's history in the next 12 months, and we've had the most amazing financial results possible over the last five years, and we're predicting being back at double-digit revenue growth in fiscal year '06.

Instead of looking at leadership as decision making—as a rational process of sifting through data, analyzing trends, and making decisions based on predicting futures—a design framework emphasizes pragmatic experimentation.

I come back to the same thing: We've got the greatest pipeline in the company's history in the next 12 months, and we've had the most amazing financial results possible over the last five years, and we're predicting being back at double-digit revenue growth in fiscal year '06.