Quotes About Tetlock

Take the price of oil, long a graveyard topic for forecasting reputations.

Mauboussin notes that slow regression is more often seen in activities dominated by skill, while faster regression is more associated with chance.15

You see the shadow. Snap! You are frightened—and running. That's the "availability heuristic," one of many System 1 operations—or heuristics—discovered by Daniel Kahneman, his collaborator Amos Tversky, and other researchers in the fast-growing science of judgment and choice.

Less noticed was Tetlock's other finding: predicting the future wasn't just lucky guessing. Some people did much, much better than average.115 He called them superforecasters.

The results of Tetlock's study were sobering. These most expert of experts—96 percent of them had postgraduate training—"thought they knew more than they knew," he says. How accurate were their predictions? They weren't much better than "dart-throwing chimps," as Tetlock often joked.

When Tetlock was asked at a public lecture to forecast the future of forecasting, he said, "When the audience of 2515 looks back on the audience of 2015, their level of contempt for how we go about judging political debate will be roughly comparable to the level of contempt we have for the 1692 Salem witch trials."49

otro morirá.37 La tercera clase de tabú de Tetlock es el contrafáctico herético.