Quotes About Philip Tetlock

the CIA was training Cuban exiles to land in Cuba and launch a guerrilla war against the new government of Fidel Castro.

was one of the worst—arguably the worst—intelligence failure in modern history.

You see the shadow. Snap! You are frightened—and running. That's the "availability heuristic," one of many System 1 operations—or heuristics—discovered by Daniel Kahneman, his collaborator Amos Tversky, and other researchers in the fast-growing science of judgment and choice.

So finding meaning in events is positively correlated with wellbeing but negatively correlated with foresight.

The largest, longest study of experts' economic forecasts was performed by Philip Tetlock, a professor at the Haas Business School of the University of California–Berkeley. He studied 82,000 predictions over 25 years by 300 selected experts. Tetlock concludes that expert predictions barely beat random guesses. Ironically, the more famous the expert, the less accurate his or her predictions tended to be.