Quotes About Forecasters

Assemble forecasters. Ask them large numbers of questions with precise time frames and unambiguous language. Require that forecasts be expressed using numerical probability scales. And wait for

Forecasters who can't cope with the dissonance risk making the most serious possible forecasting error in a conflict: underestimating your opponent.

Forecasters who see illusory correlations and assume that moral and cognitive weakness run together will fail when we need them most.

This chapter is about the hurdles and best practices in idea selection. To figure out how we can make fewer bad bets, I sought out skilled forecasters who have learned to avoid the risks of false positives and false negatives.

mistakes subject to so discerning and public a post?mortem as weather forecasters.

Choices whose outcomes matter even though they are neither deterministic nor completely random surround us all the time. So it is not surprising that in all human societies, entire professions have been based on the making of such predictions—think of astrologers, stockbrokers, professional gamblers, weather forecasters, or . . . politicians.

The economy depends about as much on economists as the weather does on weather forecasters.

I'm not an economist and we all know economists were created to make weather forecasters look good.

The global financial crisis - missed by most analysts - shows that most forecasters are poor at pricing in economic/financial risks, let alone geopolitical ones.

The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers.

The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers.

There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don't know, and those who don't know they don't know.

Fuck the weather forecasters and their predictions. With magic, he'd just turned their Doppler radar upside down. Sapphire Phelan (Being Familiar With a Witch)

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which reports to the executive branch, rebuked Alabama forecasters for contradicting the president. The existence

A forecasting game is a kind of simulation, a kind of scenario, a kind of teleconference, a kind of artifact from the future - and more - that enlists the participants as 'first-person forecasters.'

We've long felt that the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune tellers look good. Even now, Charlie and I continue to believe that short-term market forecasts are poison and should be kept locked up in a safe place, away from children and also from grown-ups who behave in the market like children.

Near the end of the flood, weather forecasters began tallying up just how much rain had fallen in the Dayton area alone. One estimate making the rounds shortly afterward was that during the four days it rained on Dayton, the amount of water dumping over the city and passing through the streets equaled the amount of water that flows over Niagara Falls in a four-day period.

The forecasters' errors were significantly larger than the average difference between individual forecasts, which indicates herding. Normally, forecasts should be as far from one another as they are from the predicted number.

In a sense, there are as many forecasting methods as there are forecasters. But I would argue that most projections are derived from two major methods: macro-econometric models and eclectic judgment.