Quotes About Knowledge

The results of Tetlock's study were sobering. These most expert of experts—96 percent of them had postgraduate training—"thought they knew more than they knew," he says. How accurate were their predictions? They weren't much better than "dart-throwing chimps," as Tetlock often joked.

Internet, a pesar de su poder, no ha conseguido dar muerte a la bestia de la asimetría informativa.

The Internet has accomplished what even the most fervent consumer advocates usually cannot: it has vastly shrunk the gap between the experts and the public.

income and education are strongly correlated

the Internet is brilliantly efficient at shifting information from the hands of those who have it into the hands of those who do not.

La prueba de todo conocimiento es el experimento —dijo—. El experimento es el único juez de la "verdad" científica». La

Knowing what to measure, and how to measure it, can make a complicated world less so.

The next time you run into a question that you can only pretend to answer, go ahead and say "I don't know"—and then follow up, certainly, with "but maybe I can find out." And work as hard as you can to do that. You may be surprised by how receptive people are to your confession, especially when you come through with the real answer a day or a week later.

The next time you run into a question that you can only pretend to answer, go ahead and say "I don't know"—and then follow up, certainly, with "but maybe I can find out." And work as hard as you can to do that.

Every time we pretend to know something, we are doing the same: protecting our own reputation rather than promoting the collective good.

Los medios de comunicación necesitan a los expertos tanto como los expertos a los medios.

If you were to assume that many experts use their information to your detriment, you'd be right.

La información es un faro, un garrote, una rama de olivo, en total, un elemento de disuasión, dependiendo de quién la maneje y cómo. La información es tan poderosa que la asunción de información, aun cuando ésta no exista realmente, puede tener un efecto revulsivo.

Letting go of the conventional wisdoms that torment us. Letting go of the artificial limits that hold us back—and of the fear of admitting what we don't know. Letting go of the habits of mind that tell us to kick into the corner of the goal even though we stand a better chance by going up the middle.

Unfortunately, this fact is routinely ignored by those who engage in—take a deep breath—ultracrepidarianism, or "the habit of giving opinions and advice on matters outside of one's knowledge or competence.

Beliefs," things we hold to be true but which may not be easily verified.

asimetría de la información, un estado en el que en una transacción una de las partes posee mejor información que otra.

For until you can admit what you don't yet know, it's virtually impossible to learn what you need to.

It isn't only that we know less than we pretend about the outside world; we don't even know ourselves all that well.

Every time we pretend to know something, we are doing the same: protecting our own reputation rather than promoting the collective good. None of us want to look stupid, or at least overmatched, by admitting we don't know an answer. The incentives to fake it are simply too strong.

los experimentos de laboratorio tienen el poder de transformar a una persona en «un autómata estúpido» que puede manifestar una «entusiasta disposición a ayudar al investigador de todas las maneras posibles, diciéndole precisamente lo que más quiere saber».

Tis much better to do a little with certainty and leave the rest for others that come after than to explain all things by conjecture without making sure of any thing.

I hope when my kids have kids, there are still books around, and I don't really care if mine are around, but I hope there are books around because I love the idea of that. I love doing this. I love doing a podcast, but to me, a book is a thing that has no equal.

But while there are exceptions to every rule, it's also good to know the rule.