Quotes About Decision-making

The key to statistical prediction is to figure out how much weight you should assign to the base rate and specific case. If the expected accuracy of the prediction is low, you should place most of the weight on the base rate. If the expected accuracy is high, you can rely more on the specific case.

To overcome inertia, Peter Drucker, the legendary consultant, suggested asking the seemingly naïve question, "If we did not do this already, would we, knowing what we now know, go into it?"26

Nó không d?y chúng ta cách phân bi?t Ä'úng sai, mà "ch? làm th? nào ?? tính toán gi?i hÆ¡n".

Minorities received the highest level of positive attention and the greatest influence on the private opinions of members of the majority and on the final group decision when they communicated face-to-face. —Malcolm Gladwell, The Tipping Point

through phase draws accusations of wavering and weakness. Critics who shout, "Do something!" usually haven't a clue that every forceful action in the crisis du jour can have untoward consequences. Muddling reflects the reality of crisis decision making, but it doesn't readily fit popular perceptions of leadership, especially when magnified

In real crises, the successful leaders are usually the ones who cope best with ignorance and error.

Even now, running for the most powerful position on the planet, a job that relies almost entirely on the power to persuade those around you, a job heavy on running a team and winning loyalty, even now Donald J. Trump said he made most of his decisions by himself, consulting no one: "I understand life," he said. "And I understand how life works. I'm the Lone Ranger." He

Managers tend to pick a strategy that is the least likely to fail, rather then to pick a strategy that is most efficient," Said Palmer. " The pain of looking bad is worse than the gain of making the best move.

When they made decisions, people did not seek to maximize utility. They sought to minimize regret.

fifth risk: the risk a society runs when it falls into the habit of responding to long-term risks with short-term solutions.

Those who need leaders are not qualified to choose them.

Those who need leaders are not qualified to choose them. In a sense, asking people to make political decisions is like asking them to forecast the weather. They're not in a position to do so, and it is silly to expect them to. Democracy entails people who run their businesses well being forced to run their businesses poorly by people who can't run businesses at all.

Any good strategist knew that sacrificing a pawn was vastly preferable to risking the king. It was the whole reason armies had infantries.

They may have salt, sugar, and fat on their side, but we, ultimately, have the power to make choices. After all, we decide what to buy. We decide how much to eat.

There is a fatal internal contradiction in seeing "democracy" as being nothing more than majority rule, rather than a set of restrictions on majority rule:

Whenever I am confused about what to do in life, I quietly sit down and think about where I have been and compare this to where I might want to go in future. The answer to the next step just comes to me from inside myself.

She had grown older. And he loved her more now than he had loved her when he understood her better, when she was the product of her parents. What she was now was what she herself had decided to become.

Când nu e?ti sigur, ocole?te.

John-Dylan Haynes22 and his colleagues expanded Libet's experiments in 2008 to show that the outcomes of an inclination can be encoded in brain activity up to ten seconds before it enters awareness! The brain has acted before its person is conscious of it. Not only that, from looking at the scan, they can make a prediction about what the person is going to do. The implications of this are rather staggering.

Libet has provided us with an intriguing possible mechanism for explaining why we think we are doing in real time things that we have in fact already done.

It was important for Bob Noyce to be liked, which paralyzed his ability to fire people or reposition them downward, even when the company and those who worked for it were at risk.

Don't ever, for any reason, do anything, to anyone, for any reason, ever, no matter what, no matter where, or who, or who you are with, or where you are going, or where you've been, ever, for any reason whatsoever.

Michael Shellenberger

Being a good, innovative librarian means taking a humanistic stance toward policy, decision-making, and experimentation. It means focusing on the heart.