Quotes About Evaluation

I have been struck by how important measurement is to improving the human condition," Bill Gates wrote. "You can achieve incredible progress if you set a clear goal and find a measure that will drive progress toward that goal….

Once we know the outcome of something, that knowledge skews our perception of what we thought before we knew the outcome: that's hindsight bias.

Here's my long-term prediction for Long Now. When the Long Now audience of 2515 looks back on the audience of 2015, their level of contempt for how we go about judging political debate will be roughly comparable to the level of contempt we have for the 1692 Salem witch trials.

effective learning from experience can't happen without clear feedback, and you can't have clear feedback unless your forecasts are unambiguous and scorable. Sound familiar? It should. Drezner cited an article about the IARPA tournament.

If we are serious about measuring and improving, this won't do. Forecasts must have clearly defined terms and timelines. They must use numbers. And one more thing is essential: we must have lots of forecasts.

Researchers have found that merely asking people to assume their initial judgment is wrong, to seriously consider why that might be, and then make another judgment, produces a second estimate which, when combined with the first, improves accuracy almost as much as getting a second estimate from another person.

Farraj looked at me with the clinical distaste of a chiropodist regarding a septic toenail.

Initially, exercising at this relatively low heart rate may be difficult for some people. But after a short time, you will feel better and your pace will quicken at that same heart rate, so you will not be exercising at that relatively slow pace for too long. In other words, you will walk, run, bike and perform all activities at faster paces. This increase in pace (or power) at the same MAF HR is also an important evaluation, called the MAF Test, that measures this progress.

Space and resources preclude an exhaustive or even an extensive comparative

When I asked my boss if he would refer me to someone in London where I was going next, he replied, "If you are really good, then we would not want you to leave. If you are bad, then we would not refer you. If you are just so so, why should we bother?" So he did not do anything. Luckily his boss, a Swiss manager, felt compelled to notify his London colleagues that I was going to be in town. And thus I got hired.

Forget the old advice to think twice. Superforecasters often think thrice—and sometimes they are just warming up to do a deeper-dive analysis.

produce forecast-wrecking

The politicians would be blind men arguing over the colors of the rainbow. If the government had subjected its policy "to a randomized controlled trial then we might, by now, have known its true worth and be some way ahead in our thinking," Cochrane observed.

two hundred studies—has shown that in most cases statistical algorithms beat subjective judgment, and in the handful of studies where they don't, they usually tie. Given that algorithms are quick and cheap, unlike subjective judgment, a tie supports using the algorithm. The point is now indisputable: when you have a well-validated statistical algorithm, use it

we are serious about measuring and improving, this won't do. Forecasts must have clearly defined terms and timelines. They must use numbers. And one more thing is essential: we must have lots of forecasts.

I have been struck by how important measurement is to improving the human condition," Bill Gates wrote. "You can achieve incredible progress if you set a clear goal and find a measure that will drive progress toward that goal. … This may seem basic, but it is amazing how often it is not done and how hard it is to get right.

The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything and the value of nothing.

The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.

The world is divided into the ordinary and the extraordinary. The problem is deciding which is which.

Taste classifies, and it classifies the classifier.

What you see at a bachelor or bachelorette party is what happens on a recruiting visit.

I must visit a psychiatrist to check if there's any sanity left in me.

When I was visiting schools, I wanted to go and see what they got. After my visit, I knew that Kansas was good.

What we do at the end of every season - which is why it's probably not the greatest idea to talk about things in the visitor's locker room after the final game - we sit down and have real serious conversations with all of the senior people.