Quotes About Complexity

Epistemic arrogance bears a double effect: we overestimate what we know, and underestimate uncertainty, by compressing the range of possible uncertain states (i.e., by reducing the space of the unknown).

the nonlinearity (that is, the asymmetry, with more upside than downside; asymmetry is a form of nonlinearity).

we are likely to unwittingly simplify the problem because our minds routinely do so without our knowing it.

We can mistake the antifragility of the system for that of the individual, when in fact it takes place at the expense of the individual

when its wording is slightly modified.

the effects on the environment are not foreseeable—nobody studied the interactions.

Beware of precise plans by governments. As

in the presence of nonlinearities, the longer the forecast the worse its accuracy.

Antifragile shows how people confuse risk of ruin with variations and fluctuations—a simplification that violates a deeper, more rigorous logic of things.

show how some degree of unpredictability (or lack of knowledge) can be beneficial to our defective species.

La maldición de la modernidad es que cada vez estamos más colonizados por una clase de personas cuya capacidad para explicar las cosas supera a su capacidad de comprensión. O cuya capacidad explicativa supera a sus acciones.

complication without depth

but there is no point reading too much into success stories because we do not see the full picture.

the collective (and the aggregate) are disproportionately less predictable than individuals.

La pequeño es hermoso en muchos otros aspectos. Quedémonos, por ahora, con que lo pequeño (como agregado, es decir, como conjunto de unidades pequeñas) es más antifrágil que lo grande: en realidad, lo grande está condenado a caer, una propiedad matemática que explicaré más adelante y que, por desgracia, parece ser universal porque se aplica a las grandes empresas, a los grandes mamíferos y a las grandes administraciones.

People with too much smoke and complicated tricks and methods in their brains start missing elementary, very elementary things. Persons in the real world can't afford to miss these things; otherwise they crash the plane. Unlike

For a theory is a very dangerous thing to have.

Black Swan logic makes what you don't know far more relevant than what you do know.

as the sum becomes increasingly different from the parts.

La narratividad nace de una necesidad biológica innata conforme a la cual tendemos a reducir la dimensionalidad;

Where simplifications fail, causing the most damage, is when something nonlinear is simplified with the linear as a substitute. That is the most common Procrustean bed.

these "computable" risks are largely absent from real life!

What do they seem to have in common?

Diversity here has to do with the degree of uncertainty inherent in the process.