Quotes About Reflection

Changing one's mind about human nature is hard work, and changing one's mind for the worse about oneself is even harder.

We must be inclined to believe it because it has been repeated so often, but let's think it through again.

Lo mejor que podemos hacer es llegar a un compromiso: aprender a reconocer situaciones en las que los errores sean probables y esforzarnos en evitar errores importantes cuando están en juego cosas de primer orden. La premisa de este libro es que es más fácil reconocer los errores de otros que los nuestros.

Imagine that we are a year into the future. We implemented the plan as it now exists. The outcome was a disaster. Please take 5 to 10 minutes to write a brief history of that disaster.

it is much easier, as well as far more enjoyable, to identify and label the mistakes of others than to recognize our own.

your subjective experience consists largely of the story that your System 2 tells itself about what is going on.

How closely does System 2 monitor the suggestions of System 1? His reasoning was that we know a significant fact about anyone who says that the ball costs 10¢: that person did not actively check whether the answer was correct, and her System 2 endorsed an intuitive answer that it could have rejected with a small investment of effort.

The premortem has two main advantages: it overcomes the groupthink that affects many teams once a decision appears to have been made, and it unleashes the imagination of knowledgeable individuals in a much-needed direction.

The experience of familiarity has a simple but powerful quality of 'pastness' that seems to indicate that it is a direct reflection of prior experience'. This quality of pastness is an illusion.

Overconfidence is fed by the illusory certainty of hindsigh

Nothing in life is quite as important as you think it is while you are thinking about it.

Recognize the signs that you are in a cognitive minefield, slow down, and ask for reinforcement of system 2.

Memories are all we get to keep from our experience of living, and the only perspective that we can adopt as we think about our lives is therefore that of the remembering self.

You inability to reconstruct past beliefs will inevitably cause you to underestimate the extent to which you were surprised by past events.

The premortem is not a panacea and does not provide complete protection against nasty surprises, but it goes some way toward reducing the damage of plans that are subject to the biases of WYSIATI and uncritical optimism.

Close your eyes.

The remembering self is the one that answers the question: "How was it, on the whole?" Memories are all we get to keep from our experience of living, and the only perspective that we can adopt as we think about our lives is therefore that of the remembering self.

Questioning what we believe and want is difficult at the best of times, and especially difficult when we most need to do it, but we can benefit from the informed opinions of others.

Questioning what we believe and want is difficult at the best of times

it is easier to recognize other people's mistakes than our own.

Poignancy (a close cousin of regret) is a counterfactual feeling, which

When the question is difficult and a skilled solution is not available, intuition still has a shot: an answer may come to mind quickly—but it is not an answer to the original question.

When no recent event comes to mind, more distant memories govern.

They instructed negotiators to focus their attention and search their memory for arguments against the anchor.