Quotes About Reliability

Always be suspicious of the news you want to hear. —Francis Everitt, physicist

Could your data be wrong? Could

Could your data be wrong?

Failure to converge. Confidence limits exceeded. Further predictions unreliable.

The reason that stuff goes bad is because it's crappy old tech. Internal augs are less failure-prone than your own brain." "So they'll work flawlessly when some spambot hacks in and leaves me with an irresistible urge to buy a year's supply of bubble bath for cats.

if you're smart enough to do the job, you're too smart to trust with the controls.

I could be the only sentient being in the universe. If I'm even that much. Because I don't know if there is such a thing as a reliable narrator.

Öyle bir ya?tayd?m ve öyle bir mizaçtayd?m ve çocuklu?umda o kadar az oyun oynam??t?m ve aldatmas?n? o kadar az ö?renmi?tim ki, yalan bana suçlar?n en a??r? gibi geliyordu; ve bir yalan söylendi?i zaman insanlar?n de?il, e?yan?n bile buna nas?l tahammül etti?ine ?a??yordum.

Just look over your shoulder...I'll be there always.

I'll be there for you, always Always and always Just look over your shoulder I'll be there, always.

The true friend is the one that's coming in the door while everyone else is going out.

Consumers of forecasting will stop being gulled by pundits with good stories and start asking pundits how their past predictions fared—and reject answers that consist of nothing but anecdotes and credentials.

For centuries, it hobbled progress in medicine. When physicians finally accepted that their experience and perceptions were not reliable means of determining whether a treatment works, they turned to scientific testing—and medicine finally started to make rapid advances. The same revolution needs to happen in forecasting.

My research collaborator Don Moore points out that police officers spend a lot of time figuring out who is telling the truth and who is lying, but research has found they aren't nearly as good at it as they think they are and they tend not to get better with experience. That's because experience isn't enough. It must be accompanied by clear feedback.

Our lives sometimes depend on computers performing as predicted.

I seldom lie,' he said.

I dislike a man who's not precise about what he wants to drink," said Maugham. "You can't rely on a fellow who's vague about his favorite tipple. If he's not precise about something he's going to drink then it's clear he's not going to be precise about anything.

it seemed to Kirsch that the most reliable guide to the mental landscape of a patient was the patient himself. He was better placed to explain his behaviour and his experiences than anyone else. Yet wherever Kirsch went, the patient was the very last person anyone thought to consult. Because, of course, the patient was insane.

The memories of men are too frail a thread to hang history from.

When I asked my boss if he would refer me to someone in London where I was going next, he replied, "If you are really good, then we would not want you to leave. If you are bad, then we would not refer you. If you are just so so, why should we bother?" So he did not do anything. Luckily his boss, a Swiss manager, felt compelled to notify his London colleagues that I was going to be in town. And thus I got hired.

Forecasters who see illusory correlations and assume that moral and cognitive weakness run together will fail when we need them most.

The one undeniable talent that talking heads have is their skill at telling a compelling story with conviction, and that is enough. Many have become wealthy peddling forecasting of untested value to corporate executives, government officials, and ordinary people who would never think of swallowing medicine of unknown efficacy and safety but who routinely pay for forecasts that are as dubious as elixirs sold from the back of a wagon.

All his novels are unreliable gospels for those who can't be sure of a thing.

It takes a good memory to keep up a lie.