Quotes About Analysis

She says experience has taught her that criticism is more effective than praise. What she doesn't understand is that it's all due to regression to the mean.

Start with an estimate of average GPA. Determine the GPA that matches your impression of the evidence. Estimate the correlation between your evidence and GPA.

Relying on causal thinking about a single case is a source of predictable errors. Taking the statistical view, which we will also call the outside view, is a way to avoid these errors.

The technical definition of heuristic is a simple procedure that helps find adequate, though often imperfect, answers to difficult questions.

They keep making the same mistake: predicting rare events from weak evidence. When the evidence is weak, one should stick with the base rates.

shed new light on the planning fallacy

Much like the electricity meter outside your house or apartment, the pupils offer an index of the current rate at which mental energy is used.

Consistent overweighting of improbable outcomes—a feature of intuitive decision making—eventually leads to inferior outcomes.

anyone who ignores base rates and the quality of evidence in probability assessments will certainly make mistakes.

judgment heuristics "are quite useful, but sometimes lead to severe and systematic errors.

good judgments depend on what you know, how well you think, and how you think.

The interaction of the two systems is a recurrent theme of the book, and a brief synopsis of the plot is in order.

Daniel Kahneman is one of the most original and interesting thinkers of our time.

Wann immer einen die Dinge erschreckten, sei es eine gute Idee, sie zu messen.

A good way to do econometrics is to look for good natural experiments and use statistical methods that can tidy up the confounding factors that Nature has not controlled for us.

In the West, military intelligence (MI) analysts have long followed a simple premise: Assess enemy capabilities, not intentions.

The U.S. collected information superbly and everywhere, from space to dirt. They tracked all kinds of events and things and people. For long-lead-time matters, like the order of battle for the Chinese fleet, that sufficed. For short-fuse needs, it got much, much more excruciating. Of the mass of data gathered, only a small percentage (50 percent? 10 percent? 5 percent?) ever got analyzed. Only a tiny fraction of that produced the specificity to allow action.

The MI folks could usually tell you the make, model, year, paint color, and license plate of the semitrailer truck that just ran over you.

Statisticamente tutto si spiega, personalmente tutto si complica.

la grammaire est le premier outil de la pensée organisée et (...) la fameuse analyse logique (...) ajuste les mouvements de notre réflexion, laquelle se trouve aiguisée par le bon usage des fameuses propositions subordonnées.

Vuoi che ti dica una cosa? Più lo si analizza, corpo moderno, più lo si esibisce, meno esso esiste. Annullato, in misura inversamente proporzionale alla sua esposizione.

Percival guessed that his prey preferred to listen, letting her friends carry on with whatever amusing nonsense filled their lives, while she privately assessed their habits, cataloging their strengths and faults with clinical ruthlessness.

graphs are not always what they seem. There may be more in them than meets the eye, and there may be a good deal less.

Permitting statistical treatment and the hypnotic presence of numbers and decimal points to befog causal relationships is little better than superstition.