Quotes About Analysis

Electrophoresis.

And believe it or not, those screaming faces Sarasti used near the end of the book represent a very real form of statistical analysis: Chernoff faces,132 which are more effective than the usual graphs and statistical tables at conveying the essential characteristics of a data set.133

But pattern-matching doesn't equal comprehension.

But, she silently vowed, science demands there be more evaluation of this kissing phenomena.

If you were to ask me which of the Big Five is the most important number, I'd tell you to go to ROIC first. If a business doesn't have a healthy ROIC—above 10 percent per year on average for the last ten years—move on to another business.

Midway through the jury selection, juror expert Jo 'Ellan Dimitrius was brought in to help the defense. She had a long, thin face, intense dark eyes, and bouffant platinum hair. Richard often conferred with her.

Consumers of forecasting will stop being gulled by pundits with good stories and start asking pundits how their past predictions fared—and reject answers that consist of nothing but anecdotes and credentials.

Maxims Hidden in the Text Try, fail, analyze, adjust, try again. John Maynard Keynes cycled through these steps ceaselessly. 178 An imperfect decision made in time is better than a perfect one made too late. 215-216 Plans are merely a platform for change. Israeli Defense Forces slogan. 222 If we ask many tiny pertinent questions, we can close in on an answer for the big question. 263

Stock prices do not always reflect the true value of companies, so an investor should study a company thoroughly and really understand its business, capital, and management when deciding whether it had sufficient underlying value to make an investment for the long term worthwhile.

If forecasters can keep questioning themselves and their teammates, and welcome vigorous debate, the group can become more than the sum of its parts.

A forecaster who doesn't adjust her views in light of new information won't capture the value of that information, while a forecaster who is so impressed by the new information that he bases his forecast entirely on it will lose the value of the old information that underpinned his prior forecast. But the forecaster who carefully balances old and new captures the value in both—and puts it into her new forecast. The best way to do that is by updating often but bit by bit.

Special counsel Theodore Sorensen and the president's brother Bobby were designated "intellectual watchdogs," whose job was to "pursue relentlessly every bone of contention in order to prevent errors arising from too superficial an analysis of the issues," Janis noted.

Need for cognition" is the psychological term for the tendency to engage in and enjoy hard mental slogs. [...] superforecasters score high in need-for-cognition tests.

The more you want to explain about a black swan event like the storming of the Bastille," wrote the sociologist Duncan Watts, "the broader you have to draw the boundaries around what you consider to be the event itself.

The idea of randomized controlled trials was painfully slow to catch on and it was only after World War II that the first serious trials were attempted. They

What people didn't grasp is that the only alternative to a controlled experiment that delivers real insight is an uncontrolled experiment that produces merely the illusion of insight. Cochrane

A defining feature of intuitive judgment is its insensitivity to the quality of the evidence on which the judgment is based.

Popular books often draw a dichotomy between intuition and analysis—"blink" versus "think"—and pick one or the other as the way to go. I am more of a thinker than a blinker, but blink-think is another false dichotomy. The choice isn't either/or, it is how to blend them in evolving situations.

If we are serious about measuring and improving, this won't do. Forecasts must have clearly defined terms and timelines. They must use numbers. And one more thing is essential: we must have lots of forecasts.

What make the difference is correctly identifying and responding to subtler information so you zero in on the eventual outcome faster than others.

The psychological term for this process is "construal," which refers to the way that each of us understands and explains the world. Once

Start with an honest analysis of why you are in opposition, not in government.

There is no such thing as a neutral or purely objective historian. Without an opinion a historian would be simply a ticking clock, and unreadable besides.

It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data.—Sir Arthur Conan Doyle