Quotes About Inference

If I could sum up the message of this book in one pithy phrase, it would be that you are smarter than your data. Data do not understand causes and effects; humans do.

The two fundamental questions of causality are: (1) What empirical evidence is required for legitimate inference of cause–effect relationships? (2) Given that we are willing to accept causal information about a phenomenon, what inferences can we draw from such information, and how?

overrate it in the sense that they often control for many more variables than they need to and even for variables that they should not

I sometimes allow people to infer that I'm much less successful than I am.

99 percent of what you see is not what comes in through the eyes. It is what you infer about that room.

I had always been told by my parents, not implicitly told, but every inference was that Britain was the hub of the universe.

Being insignificant statistically doesn't mean it's right or wrong. It just means you don't have enough data to show yes or no.

Yeah, but in the end his followers take what they want from his philosophy. Maybe it doesn't matter what's going on in David Icke's mind. It's how other people take him.

I think a lot of the dull parts of first drafts come from a kind of over-managing, intrusive writer who wants to direct traffic. The idea of taking out the parts that the reader could infer is very liberating, and it's weirdly part of radicalizing your work: it allows you to go to new places fast.

Quod erat demonstrandum

It is by logic we prove. It is by intuition we discover.

The smaller the sample size, the more likely that it is unrepresentative of the wider population.

Even people trained in statistics and probability theory failed to intuit how much more variable a small sample could be than the general population—and that the smaller the sample, the lower the likelihood that it would mirror the broader population.

But because he has misjudged how large the sample needs to be if it is to stand a good chance of reflecting the entire population, he is at the mercy of luck.

Ockham's razor. The simplest explanation was usually correct. They

The problem of induction is the problem of how an argument can be good reasoning as induction but be poor reasoning as a deduction.

This was their way; a lot was said by saying nothing. She

Speaking of art): In leaving something unsaid the beholder is given a chance to complete the idea and thus a great masterpiece irresistably rivets your attention until you seem to become actually a part of it.

post hoc ergo propter hoc

To read between the lines was easier than to follow the text

Everyone generalizes from one example. At least, I do.

Everybody generalizes from one example. At least, I do.

Observation: I can't see a thing. Conclusion: Dinosaurs.

Observation: I can't see a thing. Conclusion: Dinosaurs.