Quotes About Logic

The procedure I adopted to tame the halo effect conforms to a general principle: decorrelate error!

An unbiased appreciation of uncertainty is a cornerstone of rationality

automatic search for causes shapes our thinking

In everyday speech, we call people reasonable if it is possible to reason with them, if their beliefs are generally in tune with reality, and if their preferences are in line with their interests and their values. The

Subjects' unwillingness to deduce the particular from the general was matched only by their willingness to infer the general from the particular.

In the absence of a competing intuition, logic prevails.

Facing a choice, we gave up rationality rather than give up the enterprise.

The emotional tail wags the rational dog

System 2 also is capable of a more systematic and careful approach to evidence, and of following a list of boxes that must be checked before making a decision

System 2 is activated when an event is detected that violates the model of the world that System 1

judgments of similarity and probability are not constrained by the same logical rules. It is entirely acceptable for judgments of similarity to be unaffected by base rates and also by the possibility that the description was inaccurate, but anyone who ignores base rates and the quality of evidence in probability assessments will certainly make mistakes.

A bat and ball cost $1.10. The bat costs one dollar more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?

Relying on causal thinking about a single case is a source of predictable errors. Taking the statistical view, which we will also call the outside view, is a way to avoid these errors.

The technical definition of heuristic is a simple procedure that helps find adequate, though often imperfect, answers to difficult questions.

Our predilection for causal thinking exposes us to serious mistakes in evaluating the randomness of truly random events.

The dominance of conclusions over arguments is most pronounced where emotions are involved.

The laziness of System 2 is an important fact of life, and the observation that representativeness can block the application of an obvious logical rule is also of some interest.

In most situations, a direct comparison makes people more careful and more logical. But not always. Sometimes intuition beats logic even when the correct answer stares you in the face.

anyone who ignores base rates and the quality of evidence in probability assessments will certainly make mistakes.

The core of his argument is that rationality should be distinguished from intelligence.

judgment heuristics "are quite useful, but sometimes lead to severe and systematic errors.

You may have noticed that the decomposition of system noise into level noise and pattern noise follows the same logic as the error equation in the previous chapter, which decomposed error into bias and noise. This time, the equation can be written as follows: System Noise2 = Level Noise2 + Pattern Noise2

La linguistica gli sembrava la scienza adatta per le persone che hanno la pedanteria necessaria per la matematica, ma non l'intelligenza. Per le persone che si inventano una propria logica, secondo il bisogno.

Epistemology: The study of knowledge. It basically asks, What is a rational test for knowability? How can we know for certain what is real? How can we know which propositions are true and which are not? What are basic principles of certainty? Epistemology attempts to lay down the line between knowledge and mere belief. It is one of the main topics of philosophy, along with logic, ethics, and metaphysics.