Quotes from Nassim Nicholas Taleb

not to be swayed by well-sounding remarks. I remind myself of Einstein's remark that common sense is nothing but a collection of misconceptions acquired by age eighteen. Furthermore, What sounds intelligent in a conversation or a meeting, or, particularly, in the media, is suspicious.

we are likely to unwittingly simplify the problem because our minds routinely do so without our knowing it.

Charlatan" was held to be a synonym for empirick. The word "empiric" designated someone who relied on experiment and experience to ascertain what was correct. In other words, trial and error and tinkering. That was held to be inferior—professionally, socially, and intellectually. It is still not considered to be very "intelligent.

Our operation has a mortality rate of 1%. So far we have operated on ninety-nine patients with great success; you are our one hundreth, hence you have a 100% probability of dying on the table.

We can mistake the antifragility of the system for that of the individual, when in fact it takes place at the expense of the individual

Recall that the most fragile is the predictive, what is built on the basis of predictability—in other words, those who underestimate Black Swans will eventually exit the population.

that the burden of evidence is on those who disturb natural systems

Missing a train is only painful if you run after it. Likewise, not matching the idea of success others expect from you is only painful if that is what you are seeking.

If you think that the inventions we see around us came from someone sitting in a cubicle and concocting them according to a timetable, think again: almost everything of the moment is the product of serendipity.

blinded by his past results.

in spite of having spent some time in libraries I feel that I am truly an amateur in the subject matter).

There seems to be no such thing as a foolish decision if it results in profits.

Popper expuso el mecanismo de las conjeturas y las refutaciones, que funciona como sigue: se formula una conjetura (osada) y se empieza a buscar la observación que demostraría que estamos en un error. Ésta es la alternativa a nuestra búsqueda de casos confirmatorios. Si pensamos que la tarea es fácil, quedaremos decepcionados: pocos seres humanos tienen la habilidad natural de hacerlo.

when its wording is slightly modified.

One of the methods, called sortes virgilianae (fate as decided by the epic poet Virgil), involved opening Virgil's Aeneid at random and interpreting the line that presented itself as direction for the course of action. You should use such method for every sticky business decision. I will repeat until I get hoarse: the ancients evolved hidden and sophisticated ways and tricks to exploit randomness. For

that to understand successes and analyze what caused them, we need to study the traits present in failures.

Out of sight, out of mind: we harbor a natural, even physical, scorn of the abstract.

grammar is something people without anything more exciting to do in their lives codify into a book. While

As a child of civil war, I disbelieve in structured learning—actually I believe that one can be an intellectual without being a nerd, provided one has a private library instead of a classroom, and spends time as an aimless (but rational) flâneur benefiting from what randomness can give us inside and outside the library. Provided

True equality is equality in probability. and Skin in the game prevents systems from rotting.

Mother Nature knows more than he will ever know, not the other way around.

people's understanding of probability does not translate into their behavior).

the effects on the environment are not foreseeable—nobody studied the interactions.

Beware of precise plans by governments. As