Quotes from Nassim Nicholas Taleb

In 1960 Taiwan had a much lower literacy rate than the Philippines and half the income per person; today Taiwan has ten times the income. At

Nero believes that risk-conscious hard work and discipline can lead someone to achieve a comfortable life with a very high probability. Beyond that, it is all randomness: either by taking enormous (and unconscious) risks, or by being extraordinarily lucky. Mild success can be explainable by skills and labor. Wild success is attributable to variance.

take a lot, a lot of imprudent risks themselves and be blinded by the odds.

The more uncertainty, the more valuable the option.

we will look at it with respect to resistance to randomness.

Simply consider that close to 80 or 85 percent of the cost of a tomato can be attributed to transportation, storage, and waste (unsold inventories), rather than the cost at the farmer level.

although no single action will have a meaningful effect.

Being an executive does not require very developed frontal lobes, but rather a combination of charisma, a capacity to sustain boredom, and the ability to shallowly perform on harrying schedules. Add to these tasks the "duty" of attending opera performances

The degree of randomness in such an activity and our ability to isolate the contribution of the individual determine the visibility of the skills content.

It means that rational thinking has little, very little, to do with risk avoidance. Much of what rational thinking seems to do is rationalize one's actions by fitting some logic to them.

When you spend time of the bridge of a ship or in a coxswain's station with a large compass in front, you can easily develop the impression that the compass is directing the ship rather than merely reflecting its direction.

What is easy to conceive is clear to express / Words to say it would come effortlessly.

There is no problem if people have a conflict of interest if it is congruous with downside risk for themselves.

as they think that they will beat the odds.

La burocracia es una estructura mediante la cual una persona es convenientemente separada de las consecuencias de sus actos.

Epistemic arrogance bears a double effect: we overestimate what we know, and underestimate uncertainty, by compressing the range of possible uncertain states (i.e., by reducing the space of the unknown).

options pushed me to study the math of probability.

you make it look like any critic of your method is arguing against saving the children.

Once in a while you encounter members of the human species with so much intellectual superiority that they can change their minds effortlessly.

By throwing enough words together, some unusual and magical-sounding metaphor is bound to emerge according to the laws of combinatorics.

positive Black Swans have a necessary first step: you need to be exposed to them. Many people do not realize that they are getting a lucky break in life when they get it. If

the nonlinearity (that is, the asymmetry, with more upside than downside; asymmetry is a form of nonlinearity).

Mathematicians are born, never made. Physicists and quants too. I

But top management is only paid on result—no matter the process.